券商历史复盘

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - Policy support is driving market recovery, with multiple measures introduced to boost the capital market, including the creation of a 500 billion RMB swap facility and a 300 billion RMB stock repurchase loan [4] - The securities industry benefits directly from market rebounds, with increased trading activity boosting brokerage, proprietary trading, asset management, and capital intermediary businesses [12] - The industry's 2024 net profit is expected to grow, with optimistic forecasts predicting a 2% year-on-year increase, driven by a 20% growth in proprietary trading income [15][16] - Historical analysis shows that bull markets and regulatory policy easing drive securities industry performance, with two key patterns identified: 1) Bull markets expand brokerage business and raise valuation multiples, and 2) Regulatory easing and capital market reforms create incremental growth expectations [7][10] Policy and Market Impact - The government has introduced measures to enhance market value management, including encouraging mergers and acquisitions, equity incentives, and major shareholder buybacks [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued guidelines to promote long-term capital inflows, including developing equity-focused mutual funds and reducing fund management fees [3] - The "One Bank, One Commission, One Bureau" introduced multiple measures to boost the capital market, including monetary policy tools and support for insurance institutions to establish private securities investment funds [4] - The Politburo meeting on September 26 proposed policies to stabilize the real estate market, lower the reserve requirement ratio, and guide long-term capital into the market [4] Historical Performance Analysis - Historical data shows that securities industry valuations rise significantly during bull markets, with notable periods including 2005-2007 (883 7% excess return) and 2014-2015 (95 43% excess return) [8] - Key drivers of past securities industry rallies include macroeconomic growth, regulatory reforms, and increased market liquidity [8] Business Segment Analysis - In 2023, brokerage, investment banking, asset management, interest income, proprietary trading, and other business segments accounted for 24%, 13%, 6%, 7%, 30%, and 19% of total revenue, respectively [12] - For 2024, the report forecasts a 2% decline in brokerage revenue, a 14% decline in investment banking revenue, an 11% decline in capital intermediary revenue, a 5% increase in asset management revenue, and a 20% increase in proprietary trading revenue [15][16] Valuation and Market Position - As of September 30, 2024, the securities industry's PB ratio is 1 50x, at the 17 8th percentile historically and the 35th percentile over the past decade, indicating significant upside potential as market conditions improve [17] - The industry's low positioning and improving liquidity conditions suggest room for valuation expansion [17]