ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-10-07 08:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (Maintain) with a market price of 5.26 [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the adjustment of the savings agency fee rate by Postal Savings Bank is a passive adjustment triggered by the average net interest margin of the four major banks falling below the threshold [3][7]. - The adjustment includes a significant reduction of 16 basis points in the agency fee rate, which is expected to improve the cost-to-income ratio and PPOP, leading to a profit increase of 16% [3][9]. - The bank's retail characteristics and extensive network provide a competitive advantage, with expectations of unique advantages in retail banking as the wealth management system develops [4][20]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company's financial projections indicate a revenue of 342,398 million in 2023, with a slight growth rate of 2.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 86,270 million, reflecting a growth rate of 1.2% [1][21]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 5.98, 5.98, and 5.84 respectively, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 0.56, 0.52, and 0.48 [1][21]. - The report anticipates a decline in the cost-to-income ratio to 60% and a significant contribution to net profit from the fee adjustment, estimated at 71 million for 2024 and 142 million for 2025 [11][20]. Agency Fee Rate Adjustment - The agency fee rate has been adjusted downwards by 16 basis points, with a comprehensive fee rate dropping from 1.24% to 1.08%, resulting in a decrease of 150.58 billion in savings agency fees [9][11]. - The adjustment is structured to reflect the value of different term deposits, with more significant reductions for shorter-term deposits [9][13]. - The next passive adjustment mechanism will be based on a five-year reference period, with thresholds set at below 1.37% or above 2.23% for the net interest margin [15]. Outlook - The differentiated adjustment is expected to optimize the deposit structure and promote the long-term healthy development of the agency savings business [16]. - The report suggests that the timely adjustment of agency fees will enhance the motivation of agency network employees and better maintain customer relationships, which is crucial for retail clients and deposit retention [18].