保险行业四季度策略暨重点推荐组合：弹性向上

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The insurance industry benefits from economic recovery expectations, with improvements in equity investments and real estate risks, recommending China Life, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An [1][2] - The overall fundamentals of the insurance industry are improving, with expected acceleration in growth, particularly in new business value (NBV) for life insurance [1][11] - The insurance sector has seen significant stock price increases, with New China Life rising by 40% and other companies also showing substantial gains [2][19] Summary by Sections 1. Operating Conditions - The insurance industry is experiencing an upward trend due to rising equity markets and adjustments in insurance premium rates, leading to a positive outlook [11] - For life insurance, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of NBV for Q3 2024 is projected as follows: New China Life (+50%), China Pacific (+23%), China Life (+18%), and Ping An (+14%) [14] - Property insurance is expected to see a slight increase in the combined ratio (COR) due to natural disasters in September, with a projected COR of 98.0% [14] 2. Policy Dynamics - Economic growth policies are being reinforced, with expectations for improvements in the equity market and real estate sector, while the insurance industry continues to manage risks [16] - The "National Ten Articles" 3.0 version outlines the future direction for the insurance industry, focusing on risk prevention and promoting high-quality development [17] 3. Funding Situation - The institutional heavy holding market value ratio for the insurance sector was 0.47% in Q2 2024, showing a marginal increase but still at a low historical level [19] - From September 24 to September 30, 2024, the insurance sector saw a significant increase of 29.0%, with all individual stocks achieving over 20% gains [19] 4. Stock Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on stocks with high asset elasticity, particularly in the life insurance sector, with recommendations for China Life, New China Life, China Pacific, and Ping An [21][29] - Historical analysis indicates that the current environment is similar to the period from November 2014 to April 2015, where the insurance sector saw substantial gains [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with high equity asset allocation, highlighting New China Life and China Life as having greater elasticity compared to peers [27] 5. Individual Stock Analysis - China Life is recommended for its solid fundamentals and low valuation, followed by New China Life, China Pacific, and Ping An [29][31]