大众品24Q4策略暨24Q3业绩前瞻：低增速下牛市三阶段

Group 1: Market Outlook - The consumer goods sector is expected to experience a bull market in three phases, driven by recent policy catalysts[2][3][5] - The overall demand for consumer goods has been under pressure in the first three quarters, establishing a low growth trend for the year[4][6] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The strategy for Q4 2024 is to focus on beta first, followed by alpha, as the consumer goods sector shows signs of recovery[5] - Key sectors to watch include snacks, dairy, and frozen foods, with specific companies like Jinzai Foods and Yili expected to perform well[5][6] Group 3: Performance Forecast - Q3 2024 forecasts indicate weak overall demand for consumer goods, with varying performance across different segments[6][19] - For Q3 2024, companies like Qingdao Beer and Sanhua Foods are expected to see revenue growth of -4% and 22% respectively, while Yili is projected to experience negative growth[33][34] Group 4: Risk Factors - Risks include significant increases in raw material prices, weak terminal demand, and food safety concerns[6][5] - The market is cautious about the sustainability of demand recovery, particularly in the beer and snack sectors[20][21]