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国防军工行业专题报告：干字当头，牛市军工不缺席
Huafu Securities·2024-10-07 08:32

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the modernization of national defense and military is a crucial part of China's modernization strategy, with clear strategic anchors and tactical guidance [6][15] - The industry is at a recovery inflection point, with historical low valuations and expectations for a rebound in demand, particularly in the second half of 2024 [18][25] - The transition from "point recovery" to "comprehensive recovery" is anticipated, with positive performance expected post the third quarter disclosures [43] Summary by Sections 1. Macro - The modernization of national defense and military is highlighted as a key component of China's modernization, with a strong emphasis on the absolute leadership of the Party over the military [6][11] - The 14th Five-Year Plan is seen as a critical period, with 2024 being the year to achieve the goals set out in the plan, and 2027 marking the centenary of the military [13][15] 2. Mid-level - The military industry exhibits strong planning characteristics, with expectations for a recovery similar to that of 2019 in 2024 [18] - The report notes that the military industry is currently experiencing a recovery phase, with demand expected to follow a "point to surface" recovery logic [18][21] 3. Micro - Various segments within the industry are seeing order placements, indicating a gradual recovery, with expectations for a shift to comprehensive recovery by the end of 2024 [43] - The report mentions that the military industry has a larger elasticity, historically outperforming the broader market during bull markets [40] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the main battle equipment sector is approaching a turning point, with new combat capabilities emerging [17][18] - The military industry is expected to see significant improvements in performance and valuation by 2025, driven by demand recovery and new planning directives [25][27]