机械行业投资观点：布局确定性，聚焦新经济

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the machinery industry, focusing on sectors with clear growth potential and government support [1]. Core Viewpoints - General Equipment: 2024 marks a transition in the manufacturing inventory cycle, with expectations for improved demand despite current weak conditions. The inventory cycle is crucial for investment in general equipment, with orders expected to improve [2][4]. - Rail Transit Equipment: High investment levels are expected to continue in 2024, with a significant acceleration in railway investment anticipated in the second half of the year. The railway equipment sector is projected to see both order and valuation increases [2][31]. - Engineering Machinery: Short-term domestic demand is stabilizing, with overseas exports exceeding expectations. The long-term outlook remains positive as domestic demand is expected to bottom out [2][41]. - New Economy: The report emphasizes the importance of investing in low-altitude economy and humanoid robots, with 2024 being a pivotal year for the latter's production [2][44]. - Alpha Opportunities in Sub-sectors: Beyond the highlighted sectors, the report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-growth companies in niche markets [2]. Summary by Sections General Equipment - The manufacturing inventory cycle is transitioning from active destocking to passive destocking and active restocking, with demand expectations improving due to policy support [2][4]. - As of December 2023, industrial inventory levels began to recover, indicating a potential shift towards restocking [4][6]. Rail Transit Equipment - The railway investment for January to August 2024 reached 477.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, with expectations for continued high investment levels [2][31]. - The railway operational mileage is projected to grow significantly by 2035, indicating a robust long-term outlook for the sector [28][29]. Engineering Machinery - Domestic excavator sales are expected to grow by 17% year-on-year in September 2024, with a recovery in demand anticipated [37][41]. - The global engineering machinery market is valued at over 1 trillion USD, with Chinese manufacturers increasing their market share internationally [41][42]. New Economy - The low-altitude economy market is projected to reach 6 trillion yuan by 2035, with significant growth opportunities in the humanoid robot sector [44][45]. - The report suggests focusing on key components and technologies within the humanoid robot industry for investment [46]. Alpha Opportunities in Sub-sectors - The report highlights the importance of identifying undervalued companies with growth potential across various sub-sectors, including rail transit and engineering machinery [2].