农林牧渔行业周报：Q4供给驱动猪价波动下调，仔猪、商品猪主导产能变动两级分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation rating for the pig farming industry [6][20]. Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates fluctuations in pig prices due to supply increases, predicting a gradual decline in the prices of both market pigs and piglets by the end of 2024 [19][20]. - The pig farming industry is expected to experience a bifurcation in production capacity, with companies that have cost advantages and focus on market pig sales likely to expand their capacity, while those that do not will likely reduce it [19][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Review - The report notes that from September 23 to September 30, 2024, the average price of market pigs in China decreased by 0.54 CNY/kg, reaching 17.19 CNY/kg, while a slight rebound occurred at the end of the holiday period [19][28]. - The average price of piglets has dropped significantly, nearing the cost line for sales, which may lead to a reduction in breeding sow capacity for companies focused on piglet sales [19][20]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including: - Juxing Agriculture (603477.SH): Expected to reduce breeding costs below 13 CNY/kg in the second half of 2024, enhancing profitability [21]. - Zhengbang Technology (002157.SZ): Recently restructured with the introduction of a strategic investor, which is expected to improve cost control and business recovery [21]. - Dekang Agriculture (2019.HK): Anticipated to maintain competitive breeding costs, with a projected output of 4.0261 million pigs in the first half of 2024 [21]. Industry Data - As of September 30, 2024, the average price of market pigs was 19.20 CNY/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 17.07% [28]. - The total pig inventory as of the second quarter of 2024 was 415.33 million heads, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.56% [28][30].