计算机行业投资策略周报：风险偏好加持，行业弹性敏感

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the computer industry is "Buy" for certain companies and "Hold" for others, indicating a positive outlook for select stocks while maintaining caution for others [22][23]. Core Insights - The market performance in the last five trading days of September was driven by risk appetite rather than fundamentals, particularly short-term earnings expectations [7][8]. - The computer industry is highly sensitive to risk appetite and liquidity, with key factors including the dispersion of the sector, the low added value of many companies, and the small average market capitalization leading to greater stock price volatility [7][8]. - Short-term opportunities and risks are primarily driven by trading dynamics rather than fundamentals, with the industry's performance reflecting broader market trends [8][9]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The computer industry index rose by 33.0% in the last five trading days before the holiday, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [17]. - The performance of the computer sector is expected to be a reflection of market environment changes, whether in upward or downward trends [8]. Key Areas of Focus 1. Financial IT: - Stocks like Tonghuashun and Zhina Zhen have shown significant gains, with increases of 88% and 109% respectively in the last five trading days [9]. - Despite a decline in overall revenue for the first half of 2024, certain companies have demonstrated resilience in their advertising and internet service revenues [9]. 2. Domestic AI Computing: - The domestic AI computing supply chain is expected to stabilize post-Q3 2024, with ongoing advancements in AI chip development [10]. - The valuation of companies in this sector has seen significant increases driven by market liquidity and risk appetite, rather than fundamental factors [10]. 3. Industrial Software: - The industrial software sector is experiencing a long-term growth foundation, supported by increasing performance and customer recognition of domestic products [11]. - Recent government policies are expected to enhance the market environment for industrial software, promoting domestic replacements [11]. 4. Narrow Scope of Xinchuang: - The Xinchuang industry is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at promoting technological self-sufficiency, with key players showing signs of recovery [12]. 5. Medical IT: - The demand for medical IT is expected to grow continuously, driven by policy directions and internal management needs within hospitals [13]. - The sector is currently at a historical low in terms of valuation, indicating potential for recovery [13]. 6. Smart Vehicles: - The smart driving sector is influenced by overall vehicle sales and the penetration rate of smart technology, with expectations for recovery in sales due to supportive policies [14]. 7. Educational Informationization: - The education sector is seeing increased investment, with a focus on smart education technologies, although some companies are currently facing revenue declines [16]. Conclusion - The computer industry is characterized by a complex interplay of market sentiment and fundamental performance, with certain sectors and companies poised for growth while others may face challenges in the near term [8][9].