交通运输行业四季度策略暨重点推荐组合：上牛车，出行出海

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in fundamentals due to limited new supply and a continuous recovery in demand [4][14] - The performance forecast for Q3 2024 indicates high demand for overseas shipping, while domestic demand is expected to improve [4][42] Summary by Sections 1. Operating Conditions - The transportation industry is seeing a positive trend with constrained new supply and improving demand, leading to a marginal upward shift in fundamentals [4] - For Q3 2024, the outlook suggests high demand in overseas shipping, while domestic demand is still in need of improvement [42] 2. Policy Dynamics - The report highlights several policy impacts: - Aviation: Policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption are expected to boost consumer confidence [4] - Express Delivery: In the context of consumption downgrade, policies such as interest rate cuts and incentives for replacing old products are anticipated to enhance overall demand in the express logistics sector [4][60] - Oil Shipping: The issuance of export quotas for refined oil is expected to increase downstream refinery operating rates, thereby boosting oil shipping demand [4] - Domestic Shipping: Short-term demand stimulation is expected to enhance cargo transport volumes, while long-term policies encouraging the retirement of old vessels may lead to high-quality industry development [4] 3. Financial Conditions - Institutional holdings in the transportation sector have been on the rise, with the overall institutional holding ratio reaching 2.18% as of Q2 2024, up 0.1 percentage points from Q1 2024 [6] - The report notes that the aviation sector still holds the highest proportion of institutional holdings at 0.71%, although it is on a downward trend [6] 4. Stock Recommendations - The report provides stock recommendations based on historical performance and current market conditions: - Aviation: Recommended stocks include China National Aviation H, Southern Airlines H, and Spring Airlines, focusing on those with deeper declines and higher elasticity [8] - Express Delivery: Stocks such as Debon Holdings and SF Express are recommended due to their cyclical benefits and low valuations [8] - Oil Shipping: Recommended stocks include COSCO Shipping Energy H and China Merchants Energy, with expectations of demand recovery [8] - The top recommended stock in the transportation sector is Jiayou International, with a combination of strong fundamentals and low valuations [8][93]