十一假期国内外重要信息分析：关注节后股票交易量，美联储降息预期收敛

Economic Overview - During the National Day holiday, over 1.4 billion people traveled, a 1.46% increase compared to 2023 and a 19.25% increase compared to 2019[1] - The manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8% in September, indicating initial signs of economic stabilization, although it remains below the expansion threshold[1] - Non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, with slight declines in service sector activity due to seasonal adjustments[1] Consumer Spending - National film box office revenue reached 1.706 billion yuan from October 1 to October 5, with an average daily revenue of approximately 341 million yuan, consistent with 2023 figures[1] - Travel consumption during the holiday showed significant growth, with a 27-fold increase in searches for "National Day travel" compared to last year[2] - In Beijing, monitored retail sectors achieved sales of 4.38 billion yuan, with foot traffic in key shopping areas increasing by 20.9% year-on-year[1] Real Estate Market - Real estate sales in 30 major cities during the holiday totaled 330,700 square meters, an 8% year-on-year decline, but the decrease is less severe than in September[3] - Government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to improve market expectations moving forward[3] International Economic Context - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%[4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have converged, with a 97.44% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November[4] - The Brent crude oil price surged by 8.89% due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, impacting global oil supply dynamics[3] Market Performance - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 2.82% to 22,736.87 points, reaching a two-and-a-half-year high, driven by increased foreign investment[5] - A-share market activity surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 8.06% on the last trading day before the holiday, and total trading volume reaching nearly 2.6 trillion yuan, a historical high[6]