轻工制造行业定期报告：政策利好推荐顺周期子板块

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [4]. Core Views - The light industry sector has shown significant valuation recovery driven by recent policy support, particularly in the home furnishing segment, which is expected to benefit from both real estate and consumer demand [2][6]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector as market expectations adjust, with specific companies recommended for investment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market with an index increase of 26.62% from September 23 to September 30, 2024, compared to a 25.52% increase in the CSI 300 index [12]. - Within the sector, the home furnishing industry index rose by 28.53%, while the entertainment products and packaging printing indices increased by 27.84% and 25.18%, respectively [12]. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing sector is expected to benefit from improved real estate policies and consumer confidence, leading to a potential recovery in fundamentals as subsidy policies are implemented [2][3]. - Key companies to watch include leading custom furniture brands such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Oppein, as well as soft furniture leaders like Gujia Home and Mousse [2]. Paper and Packaging - As of September 30, 2024, prices for various paper products remained stable or slightly decreased, with double glue paper priced at 5250 CNY/ton and box board paper at 3594.6 CNY/ton [3][40]. - The report anticipates a stabilization and potential recovery in box board and corrugated paper prices, driven by seasonal demand and price adjustments from major paper companies [3][40]. Export Chain - In August, exports of certain categories such as insulated cups and pet food maintained high growth rates, while furniture categories saw a slowdown [6]. - The report notes a decrease in shipping costs, with the CCFI index down by 6.0% and the SCFI index down by 9.8% as of September 30 [6]. Consumer Goods - The report emphasizes the steady development of core businesses in consumer goods, particularly for companies like Morning Glory, which is expected to deepen its strategic initiatives [3]. - The report also highlights the positive outlook for companies involved in personal care and baby products, benefiting from improved domestic demand [3].