Huachuang Securities·2024-10-07 23:36Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) with a target price of 5.98 CNY, compared to the current price of 5.26 CNY [1]. Core Views - The adjustment of the savings agency fee rate is aimed at optimizing interest payment costs, which is expected to enhance profit margins for 2024 by approximately 6.5% [2]. - The bank's unique agency business model allows for a lower deposit cost rate compared to peers, and the recent fee rate reduction is anticipated to alleviate performance drag and improve deposit structure [2]. - The bank's retail strategy remains strong, focusing on differentiated development in various financial sectors, including agriculture, small and micro finance, proactive credit, wealth management, and financial markets [2]. Summary by Sections Fee Rate Adjustment - The savings agency fee rates have been adjusted downward, with significant reductions across various deposit terms, such as a decrease of 33.8 basis points for demand deposits to 1.99% and 10.1 basis points for one-year deposits to 1.00% [2][9]. - The comprehensive fee rate for savings agencies is projected to decrease by 16 basis points to 1.08%, leading to a reduction in agency fees by 15.06 billion CNY to 100.57 billion CNY for 2023 [2]. Financial Projections - Total operating income is expected to grow from 342.51 billion CNY in 2023 to 397.87 billion CNY by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.10% [3]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 86.27 billion CNY in 2023 to 103.28 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 8.31% [3]. - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.87 CNY in 2023 to 1.04 CNY in 2026 [3]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 6.05, with projections indicating a decrease to 5.05 by 2026 [3]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is currently at 0.55, expected to rise to 0.53 by 2026 [3]. Dividend Outlook - The bank plans to distribute a mid-year dividend of 0.1477 CNY per share in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 30%, resulting in an annualized dividend yield of 5.62% [2].