医药生物行业报告:全面看多,更应把握分化后的超额收益机会
China Post Securities·2024-10-08 01:00

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, emphasizing the need to seize opportunities for excess returns during the differentiation phase [5][10]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector has rebounded approximately 29% since the end of September due to favorable national policies, reversing a nearly four-year decline. The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are 32 times for A-shares and 23 times for Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential for valuation recovery as market risk appetite increases [5][10]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in leading companies within various sub-sectors during the broad market rally, while also identifying undervalued stocks with strong performance and growth potential for the subsequent differentiation phase [12][15]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rose by 11.15% in the past week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.67 percentage points, ranking 8th among 31 sub-industries [6][27]. - The hospital sector saw the highest increase at 15.64%, followed by the vaccine sector at 15.01% and medical consumables at 14.15% [31]. Sub-sector Insights - Innovative Drugs: The report highlights the increasing support for innovative drugs from both central and local policies, with a focus on high clinical value products that are likely to receive favorable reimbursement policies [15]. - ICL (In Vitro Diagnostics): The sector is expected to benefit from improved penetration rates and increased market share among leading companies due to favorable market conditions [15]. - Comprehensive Hospitals: The report notes stable growth in hospital revenues, with expectations for continued performance improvement in the second half of the year [15]. - GLP-1 Raw Materials: The demand for GLP-1 drugs is projected to grow significantly, with the domestic market for peptide raw materials expected to reach 65.3 billion yuan by 2030 [15]. - IVD: The sector is anticipated to see a rebound driven by new product approvals and increased demand for respiratory testing [16]. - Traditional Chinese Medicine: The report indicates a gradual recovery in sales growth for traditional Chinese medicine, with opportunities arising from recent procurement policies [17]. - Pharmacies: The retail pharmacy sector is expected to see a recovery in customer traffic, with new stores contributing to performance improvements [39]. Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include International Medical, Saint Noble Bio, and InnoTech, while beneficiary stocks include Heng Rui Medical, Rongchang Bio, and Nuo Cheng Jian Hua [7][15].