2024年9月PMI数据解读：制造业PMI季节性回升

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In September 2024, the official manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.8%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a seasonal recovery in economic sentiment, surpassing the 5-year average improvement of 0.3%[1] - The production index rose to 51.2%, up 1.4 percentage points, contributing 0.35 percentage points to the PMI increase, primarily due to the end of high-temperature weather[1] - The new orders index increased to 49.9%, up 1.0 percentage points, contributing 0.3 percentage points to the PMI, likely supported by the accelerated implementation of the "two new" policies[1] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing led the sectors with PMIs of 53.0% and 52.0%, respectively, both showing improvements of 1.3 and 0.8 percentage points, supported by external demand and policy implementation[5] - The consumer goods sector showed significant recovery, likely driven by back-to-school and Mid-Autumn Festival consumption[7] - The high-energy consumption industries saw a slight recovery, but real estate remains a major drag on performance[7] Price and Inventory Indicators - The new export orders index fell to 47.5%, down 1.2 percentage points, attributed to the fading "export rush" effect and the impact of tariffs implemented on September 13[7] - The raw material purchase price index and factory price index were reported at 45.1% and 44.0%, respectively, both remaining in contraction territory, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 and 2.0 percentage points[10] - The raw material inventory and finished goods inventory indices were 47.7% and 48.4%, indicating a slight increase and decrease, respectively, suggesting that manufacturing firms are in a phase of passive replenishment and active destocking[11] Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The non-manufacturing PMI stood at 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, primarily affected by the service sector[13] - The construction sector PMI improved to 50.7%, while the service sector PMI dropped to 49.9%, reflecting a mixed performance across industries[13] Economic Outlook and Risks - The overall economic landscape shows a seasonal recovery in manufacturing PMI, with a narrowing gap in operational performance among large, medium, and small enterprises[14] - However, the persistent weakness in domestic demand continues, with heightened market focus on potential fiscal policy adjustments, including the possibility of increased government bond issuance in Q4 to stimulate economic recovery[14] - Risks include domestic and international policy changes and the potential for economic recovery to fall short of expectations[14]