医药生物行业月报：医药有望成反弹主力，看好“复苏”+“成长”

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to be a leading force in the market rebound, driven by recovery and growth dynamics. The report highlights a significant market reversal in September 2024, with the pharmaceutical sector rising by 21.34%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.38% [2][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policies, including fiscal and monetary stimulus, which are anticipated to enhance market confidence and risk appetite, leading to increased investments in the pharmaceutical sector [4][12] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - In September 2024, the pharmaceutical sector experienced a notable increase of 21.34%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 20.97%. This performance places the pharmaceutical sector 18th among 31 sub-industries [11][26] - Key sub-sectors such as medical services, biological products, and medical devices showed impressive gains, with increases of 37.04%, 22.85%, and 20.44% respectively [11][26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends increasing positions in the following companies: WuXi AppTec, Aier Eye Hospital, Zhifei Biological Products, Kangfang Bio, Dong'e Ejiao, Betta Pharmaceuticals, Nuotai Bio, NuoVas, Dean Diagnostics, and Jiutian Pharmaceutical [5][16] - The report notes that the average increase for the recommended companies in September was 16.91%, with Kangfang Bio and Betta Pharmaceuticals showing particularly strong performances of 39.71% and 29.49% respectively [18][19] Valuation Metrics - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is approximately 23.7 times PE based on 2024 earnings forecasts, which represents a premium of 26.1% compared to the overall A-share market (excluding financials) [24][27] - The TTM valuation for the pharmaceutical sector stands at 28.2 times PE, which is below the historical average of 35.4 times PE, indicating potential for valuation recovery [24][27] Policy and Market Dynamics - The report highlights several recent policy initiatives aimed at enhancing healthcare services in rural areas, which are expected to stimulate demand for medical services and products [20][21] - The report also discusses the significance of the 2024 European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) annual meeting, where several key research findings related to domestic new drugs were presented, potentially impacting market dynamics [21]