Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September 2024 increased by 0.7 percentage points to 49.8%, exceeding market expectations but remaining below the expansion threshold for five consecutive months[1] - The new orders index rose to 49.9%, ending a five-month decline, driven by seasonal factors and supportive policies[2] - The production index improved by 1.4 percentage points to 51.2%, indicating a return to the expansion zone as high temperatures and heavy rainfall effects diminished[3] Group 2: Economic Policy and Outlook - A series of monetary policy measures were implemented, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan into the financial market[4] - The government is expected to enhance fiscal policies to support economic growth, positively impacting the manufacturing sector in October[5] - The employment index remained low at 48.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in the job market despite some recovery in production[6] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Trends - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 50.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, reflecting a contraction in the service sector[7] - The service sector's business activity index dropped to 49.9%, slightly below the critical line, influenced by the end of the summer consumption peak[8] - The construction sector showed slight improvement with a business activity index of 50.7%, but still below the average level since 2015[9] Group 4: Import and Export Dynamics - New export orders and import indices fell to 47.5% and 46.1%, respectively, indicating a decline in external demand amid increasing trade tensions[10] - The gap between new export orders and imports narrowed, with new export orders 1.4 percentage points higher than imports[11] - The overall outlook for exports remains challenging due to weak overseas demand and ongoing trade friction risks[12]
2024年9月PMI数据点评：触底反弹的“金九”，“银十”怎么看？
Southwest Securities·2024-10-08 02:03