金属及金属新材料行业10月策略：库存周期再续航

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the metal and metal new materials sector is "Buy" [1]. Core Views - Basic Metals: Domestic demand expectations are rapidly improving, and basic metal prices are expected to continue rising. The overall price of basic metals is experiencing fluctuations upward due to a series of "stabilizing growth" policies and resilient U.S. economic performance [11]. - Steel: Steel mill profitability is stabilizing, and macroeconomic favorable policies are expected to restore demand expectations and boost the valuation of quality steel companies [13]. - Precious Metals: The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is influencing gold prices, which are likely to continue fluctuating upward [14]. - Energy Metals: Lithium prices still have room for decline, but the sector may have recovery expectations [15]. - Other Minor Metals: Prices for tungsten and molybdenum are fluctuating, with expectations for stability in rare earth, tungsten, and molybdenum prices in October [16]. Summary by Sections Basic Metals - Domestic demand expectations have improved significantly due to "stabilizing growth" policies, with copper and aluminum prices expected to rise [11][12]. - Copper supply remains tight, with social inventory at 224,000 tons as of September 30, and demand from cable enterprises is stable [11]. - Aluminum social inventory decreased to 658,000 tons, indicating a clear destocking trend [12]. Steel - Steel mill profitability rose to 18.62% in September, with a 36.71% increase in Shanghai rebar procurement [13]. - Prices for common steel and iron ore have increased, indicating a recovery in profitability for steel mills [13]. Precious Metals - U.S. inflation pressures are easing, and employment data is strong, which may influence gold prices to continue rising amid changing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [14]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain under pressure due to oversupply concerns, despite recent stabilization [15]. Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are expected to remain high due to tight supply and demand balance, while tungsten and molybdenum prices are anticipated to stabilize [16].