美国经济：PMI显示经济韧性与分化

Economic Overview - The September PMI indicates resilience and divergence in the U.S. economy, with the services PMI rising significantly to 54.9 from 51.5 in August, suggesting robust domestic demand[1] - The manufacturing PMI remains in contraction at 47.2, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, with a corresponding GDP growth rate of approximately 1.3%[2] Services Sector Insights - The services sector's new orders index surged to 59.4, the highest since March of the previous year, indicating strong demand[1] - Employment index in the services sector fell to 48.1, signaling a reduction in service employment despite overall sector expansion[1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - Manufacturing new orders and production indices improved slightly to 46.1 and 49.8, respectively, but the sector continues to face challenges with inventory dropping to 43.9[2] - The prices index for manufacturing dropped to 48.3, entering contraction territory for the first time this year, reflecting a decrease in price pressures[2] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to transition from overheating to a cooler state, with a forecasted gradual increase in unemployment rates and a decline in non-farm payroll growth[2] - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement further rate cuts, with a potential 25 basis points reduction in November and December, followed by an additional 100 basis points in the following year[2]