A股快速上涨后的估值现状

Group 1 - The report highlights that since late September 2024, a series of significant economic and financial policies have been introduced in China, leading to a rapid recovery in stock market valuations [1][9][10] - The current stock market is considered to have a high investment value compared to the bond market, as the equity risk premium (ERP) is at 3.27%, which is in the 70th percentile since 2010 [1][16][18] - The report indicates that the majority of major indices have not yet returned to historical average valuation levels, suggesting further potential for recovery in the stock market [1][10][13] Group 2 - As of September 30, 2024, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI 300 index is 13.3, which is at the 67th percentile historically, while the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 indices have P/E ratios of 24.9 and 38.4, respectively, indicating a 15% and 12% potential for recovery to historical averages [12][19] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the CSI 300 index is 1.41, at the 32nd percentile historically, with a 7% recovery potential, while the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 indices have P/B ratios of 1.77 and 2.00, indicating recovery potentials of 27% and 20% [13][14] - Among the 108 sub-sectors in the A-share market, 10 sectors have P/E ratios below the market bottoms of previous years, primarily in the consumer sector, while 8 sectors with P/B ratios below historical lows are found in the cyclical, financial, and midstream sectors [21][23][24]