大类资产配置月报第39期：2024年10月：国内政策定调超预期，关注国内权益与大宗配置机会

Group 1 - The report highlights that domestic policy adjustments have exceeded expectations, significantly boosting market confidence and reversing previous pessimism, particularly in the equity markets [1][32] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are expected to experience upward momentum, with the former rising from 2842.21 to 3087.53, reflecting an 8.63% increase, and the latter from 1580.46 to 1885.49, showing a 19.30% increase [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the speed and strength of fiscal policy implementation and its feedback on the economic fundamentals, particularly in sectors like automotive, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals [32][36] Group 2 - The automotive sector is showing signs of stabilization, with exports increasing significantly, and domestic sales improving due to new policies aimed at stimulating consumption [36][38] - The report notes that the consumer sector remains weak, but the effects of policies promoting vehicle trade-ins are beginning to show, with sales figures turning positive [8][36] - The overall economic indicators suggest a GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5% year-on-year, with retail sales and fixed asset investment also reflecting modest growth [8][12] Group 3 - The report indicates that the bond market is experiencing downward pressure on short-term interest rates, which could provide opportunities for investors [2][6] - The analysis of commodity prices suggests that domestic commodity prices may benefit from improved policy expectations, particularly in industrial and agricultural products [1][2] - The report also discusses the impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy on global markets, indicating a potential for further rate cuts that could influence investment strategies [6][7] Group 4 - The report outlines a strategic recommendation to overweight domestic equities and commodities while underweighting U.S. dollars and international commodities [2] - It emphasizes the need to focus on sectors that are likely to benefit from policy support, such as consumer goods and technology, which are expected to outperform in the current environment [32][36] - The analysis suggests that the current market conditions present a favorable window for investment in sectors with improving fundamentals and potential for price recovery [36][38]