东海证券：晨会纪要-20241008

Key Recommendations - During the National Day holiday, "Chinese assets" continued to strengthen, with significant gains in overseas indices such as the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, FTSE A50 futures, and the Hang Seng Index [6] - The September PMI was weaker than seasonal trends, but policy measures are expected to boost the market and future economic growth [7] - A study on the impact of oil and gas reserves on the market value of oil and gas companies highlights that reserves and production levels are key factors influencing market value [13] Economic News - The central bank net purchased 200 billion yuan of government bonds in September [2] - Beijing introduced 8 new real estate policies, including lowering down payment ratios and relaxing purchase restrictions [2] - Japan's new Prime Minister stated that further interest rate hikes are not suitable at the moment [2] - The US September manufacturing PMI was below expectations, while the non-manufacturing PMI significantly exceeded expectations [2] - Fed Chair Powell indicated that if economic data remains consistent, there could be two more rate cuts this year [2] Market Performance - During the holiday period, the FTSE China A50 futures and Hong Kong stocks performed exceptionally well, rising by 14.34% and 10.20% respectively [7] - US stock indices initially fell but later rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.22%, 0.10%, and 0.09% respectively [7] - European stock markets were relatively weak, with the UK's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC indices falling by 0.48%, 1.81%, and 3.21% respectively [7] - Crude oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent and WTI crude rising by 9.10% and 9.09% respectively [7] PMI Analysis - The September manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, up from 49.1% in August, indicating a recovery in supply and demand for mid- and downstream manufacturing [11] - The new orders index improved but remained below the 50% threshold, suggesting weak overall demand [11] - The production index rose to 51.2%, indicating a return to expansion territory [12] - The new export orders index fell to 47.5%, the lowest since February, reflecting weak external demand [12] Oil and Gas Sector - Oil and gas reserves and production levels are the main factors affecting the market value of oil and gas companies [13] - Global upstream oil and gas M&A activity has increased, with transaction amounts reaching $233.5 billion in 2023, a 163$65/barrel, with Brent crude projected to fluctuate between $60-90/barrel for the year [14] A Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index surged by 8.06% on the last trading day before the holiday, closing at 3336 points [18] - The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index rose by 10.67% and 15.36% respectively, with both indices breaking through their daily moving average systems [19] - The securities sector saw a significant inflow of large single-day funds, with over 4.82 billion yuan net inflow, indicating strong market interest [19]