衰退交易证伪：9月非农数据点评

Employment Data - In September, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 254,000, significantly exceeding expectations of 150,000[17] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% in August to 4.1%, marking a decline for two consecutive months[17] - Private sector job growth was the main contributor, with service sector jobs rising from 109,000 to 202,000[17] Economic Indicators - The non-manufacturing PMI rose sharply from 51.5 to 54.9, the highest since March 2023, indicating a strengthening economy[30] - The labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.7%, while the job vacancy rate increased to 4.8% in August, reflecting a robust job market[22] Wage Growth - Private sector wages increased by 0.3% month-on-month in September, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of 3.9%, slightly down from 4.0%[25] - Wage growth varies by industry, with wholesale and manufacturing sectors showing leading year-on-year increases[29] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut this year were adjusted, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields[32] - The S&P 500 forward PE ratio stood at 23.8, above the 10-year median of 18.9, indicating high valuations in the stock market[40] Risks - Potential risks include financial market disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and significant cooling in the job market[48]