Group 1 - The core indicator of a peak in the short-term rapid rise of A-shares is significant policy tightening and extreme turnover rates [1][5][8] - Historical data shows that there have been 12 segments of rapid upward trends in A-shares since its establishment, lasting from 10 days to 4 months [5][8] - Major positive policies and continuous capital inflow are the driving forces behind the short-term rapid rise in A-shares [1][5][8] Group 2 - Currently, there are no signs of a peak in the ongoing rapid rise of A-shares, and it is likely to continue in the short term [1][8][10] - Economic policies are expected to remain focused on growth, with fiscal policies likely to gain momentum [8][10][17] - The inflow of funds has not yet reached its peak, with current turnover rates around 4%, indicating that significant increases in trading volume are still needed to signal a peak [10][17] Group 3 - Post-holiday, economic recovery and profit expectations are likely to rise, supported by strong consumer activity during the National Day holiday [10][17][20] - The real estate market in first-tier cities has shown a significant rebound in sales, indicating a potential stabilization in the sector [10][17][20] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings reports are expected to show a continuation of the upward trend in A-share profits [10][20] Group 4 - Liquidity in the market is expected to remain ample, with potential acceleration in capital inflows post-holiday [17][20][24] - The positive performance of overseas markets, particularly Hong Kong and U.S. markets, may lead to increased foreign investment in A-shares [17][20][24] - The correlation between the MSCI China Index and foreign capital inflows suggests that a strong A-share market could attract more investment [17][20][24]
快速上涨行情见顶的标志
Huajin Securities·2024-10-08 03:03