农林牧渔行业报告：国庆节期间，猪价先跌后涨、苗价强势

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that pig prices have shown signs of stabilization after a period of decline, with the national average price rising to 17.65 CNY/KG as of October 7, 2024, from a low of 17.29 CNY/KG on October 4, 2024 [8][11]. - The report indicates that the pig production capacity has been at a low level for an extended period, making it easier for prices to rise but difficult for them to fall [11]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with high output realization and cost advantages, recommending major players like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as smaller companies like Juxing Agriculture and Huadong Animal Husbandry [12]. Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Price Trends: Pig prices initially declined during the National Day holiday but began to stabilize and rise due to better-than-expected market consumption [8]. - Production Capacity: The report notes a cumulative reduction of 9.2% in pig production capacity over the past 16 months, with production remaining below the lowest points of the previous cycles [11]. - Profitability: As of September 27, 2024, the average profit for self-bred pigs was approximately 368 CNY per head, down 95 CNY from the previous week, indicating a narrowing of industry profitability [9]. Broiler Chicken Industry - Price Trends: As of October 7, 2024, the price of chicken seedlings in Yantai, Shandong, was 4.5 CNY per chick, up 0.5 CNY from before the holiday, while the average price of broiler chickens was 3.61 CNY per jin, reflecting a slight increase [20]. - Supply Dynamics: The report notes a shortage of imported breeding stock due to avian influenza, which has led to higher prices for imported varieties compared to domestic ones [20]. - Market Outlook: The report suggests that the shortage of imported varieties is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, providing greater elasticity for upstream companies in the supply chain [20].