房地产：“金九”销售偏淡，黄金周带看提振

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Strongly Outperforming the Market" [5][39]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in new home sales, with September 2024 new home transactions down 34% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month in 30 key cities. The cumulative transaction volume for the first three quarters of 2024 has also decreased by 34% year-on-year [2][3]. - Recent government policies, including interest rate cuts on existing mortgages and reduced down payment ratios for second homes, are expected to stabilize the market in the fourth quarter of 2024. The "Golden Week" has seen a significant increase in property viewings, indicating a potential recovery in buyer sentiment [2][3]. - The report suggests that the implementation of these policies will gradually alleviate pressure on the second-hand housing market and promote stability in both new and second-hand housing markets [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Review (9.29-10.5) - A total of 7,408 new homes were sold in 34 monitored cities, representing a 70.6% decrease from the previous week. Cumulatively, 647,000 homes have been sold in 2024, down 31.9% year-on-year [4][9]. - In first-tier cities, sales decreased by 64.5% week-on-week, with a total of 1979 units sold. Year-to-date sales in first-tier cities are down 27.3% [10]. Land Supply (9.23-9.29) - The planned land supply for residential land in 100 cities is 1,474 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 22,555 million square meters in 2024, down 35.4% year-on-year. The supply-demand ratio stands at 1.45 [19][20]. - The average land price for residential land across 100 cities is 4,138 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 13% decrease month-on-month and a 21.8% decrease year-on-year [20][21]. Land Transactions (9.23-9.29) - The total area of residential land sold in 100 cities is 692 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 15,577 million square meters sold in 2024, down 28.5% year-on-year [26]. - The average transaction price for residential land is 5,500 yuan per square meter, with an overall premium rate of 4.0%. The average price for 2024 is 5,766 yuan per square meter, down 16.6% year-on-year [26][28].