宏观月报：政策拐点后，等待周期的检验

Economic Outlook - The global macroeconomic policy has shifted significantly in September, with the Federal Reserve implementing a 50 basis point rate cut and the People's Bank of China introducing a combination of monetary, real estate, and capital market policies[1] - The domestic economy is under pressure, as evidenced by August's weak profit numbers, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where profit margins have begun to contract[2] - Fixed asset investment growth in China fell to +3.4% in August, indicating rising pressure on domestic demand[8] Inflation and Price Trends - August's core CPI in China showed relative weakness, reflecting ongoing demand pressures, while the U.S. faces risks of core inflation rebounding in Q4 despite the Fed's confidence in bringing inflation down to 2%[12][13] - China's CPI rose to +0.6% in August, driven by food price increases, while PPI fell deeper into negative territory at -1.8%[15] Policy and Market Strategy - A new round of global monetary easing has begun, with the Fed's significant rate cut and China's policy adjustments marking a clear policy turning point[18] - The macro strategy suggests a shift towards neutral risk positioning in the short term, with a focus on protecting against market adjustments through yield curve flattening strategies[3] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected rate hikes by the Fed and rising geopolitical tensions that could impact market stability[4] - The market is advised to monitor the impact of economic data on risk assets and the potential for further adjustments in monetary policy as economic conditions evolve[19]