宏观策略专题报告：财政发力有哪些值得期待？

Group 1: Economic Policy and Fiscal Measures - Since the press conference on September 24, China has implemented unexpected relaxations in monetary finance, capital markets, and real estate, with a focus on fiscal policy as the next key area of concern[6] - The estimated actual public fiscal revenue for 2024 is 20.9 trillion yuan, which is 1.5 trillion yuan less than the budgeted revenue, indicating significant fiscal pressure[15] - The public fiscal expenditure from September to December 2024 is expected to decline by approximately 6.1% year-on-year, a sharp drop from the 1.5% increase observed in the first eight months of the year[15] Group 2: Economic Growth and Challenges - Due to high base effects from price reductions, the contribution of exports to GDP growth is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter of 2023, with actual export growth at 12.5% year-on-year for the first eight months[7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been negative for 23 consecutive months, with a projected further decline in September, reflecting ongoing low price pressures in the economy[9] - The broad fiscal deficit rate in China increased from 0.73% in 1997 to 2.59% in 2002, highlighting the need for proactive fiscal measures to combat low price levels[13] Group 3: Recommendations for Fiscal Policy - Future fiscal efforts may include adjusting budgets to issue more government bonds, with a focus on the upcoming National People's Congress meeting in October[17] - There is a significant opportunity to activate existing fiscal deposits, which reached 6.8 trillion yuan as of August 2024, to enhance fiscal liquidity[17] - Optimizing the fiscal expenditure structure to increase support for consumption is crucial, as China's public consumption rate was only 16.1% in 2022, below the global average[18]