政策底确认，A股进入技术性牛市

Core Viewpoints - The report confirms a policy bottom for A-shares, indicating a transition into a technical bull market driven by recent macroeconomic policy shifts aimed at stabilizing growth [1][10][12] - External capital is expected to return to A-shares as the central government's economic stance has shifted, with signs of foreign capital flowing back from other Asian equity markets [1][12][14] - The report suggests focusing on sectors aligned with government policy, particularly in consumer goods, non-bank financials, and real estate, as these areas are likely to benefit from increased government support [1][5][18] Economic Indicators - As of August, the inventory cycle shows signs of active replenishment, but industrial data indicates ongoing demand shortages and low corporate profitability [1][7] - Industrial enterprises' revenue growth was 2.4% year-on-year for the first eight months, with a decline in growth rate compared to the previous month [7][9] - The manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.8, indicating weak demand despite a slight recovery in new orders [7][10] Policy Developments - The 924 financial policy package and the 926 Politburo meeting signal a significant shift in macroeconomic policy towards stabilizing growth, with rapid implementation of supportive measures [1][10][13] - Key measures include lowering mortgage rates and down payment ratios, which are expected to stimulate consumption and improve the real estate market [10][13] - The report anticipates potential issuance of larger-scale government bonds by the end of the year to support fiscal stimulus efforts [1][5][18] Sector Focus - The consumer sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, particularly in large consumption-related stocks, as government policies are expected to prioritize consumer welfare [1][5][18] - The real estate sector is also expected to see improvements due to supportive policies aimed at stabilizing the market [1][5][18] - The military industry is noted for potential investment opportunities, particularly in unmanned systems and related technologies, as global defense spending increases [4][18]