化工行业周报：2024年10月第1周

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the chemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][21]. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is currently in a bottoming phase with few sub-sectors showing an upward trend in fundamentals. High oil prices are expected to persist, leading to a focus on high-dividend stocks such as the "Big Three" oil companies and the long-term dividend potential of leading chemical enterprises. Defensive allocations should consider the agricultural supply chain, which is more resilient during recessionary periods. Historical data shows that food prices tend to decline less than oil prices during economic downturns, emphasizing the importance of food security in recent years [5][11]. Summary by Sections Oil and Chemical Prices - As of October 4, Brent oil prices increased by 8.4% to $78.05 per barrel, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. As of September 27, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stood at 416.9 million barrels, with a weekly increase of 3.9 million barrels. Gasoline inventories rose by 1.1 million barrels to 221.2 million barrels, while distillate inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels to 121.6 million barrels [12][2]. Price Changes - Among 188 monitored chemical products, the top three price increases for the week of September 23-27 were liquid chlorine (up 66.7%), R410a (up 6.0%), and R32 (up 5.6%). Conversely, the largest declines were seen in polyvinyl alcohol (down 9.8%), octanol (down 6.3%), and WTI (down 5.9%). Monthly changes showed liquid chlorine with a staggering increase of 1544.4% [3][13]. Price Spread Changes - The top three products with the largest weekly price spread increases were butyl acrylate (up 352.3%), PTA (up 64.0%), and R410a (up 50.0%). The largest declines were in styrene (down 101.2%), hydrogen peroxide (down 30.0%), and yellow phosphorus (down 22.0%). Monthly data indicated butyl acrylate spread increased by 120.5% [4][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies such as Rongsheng Petrochemical, Huamao Technology, and Jinhui Industrial, which are expected to show significant growth potential. Additionally, attention is drawn to Salt Lake Potash as a leading domestic potassium fertilizer company [5][11].