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策略专题:从A股过往 看当下行情演绎
Zhongyuan Securities·2024-10-08 05:03

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that the A-share market is currently in the early stages of a new bull market, following a shift to a more positive policy environment, with significant capital inflow expected to drive index growth [1][4][5] - Historical analysis shows that A-shares have experienced six cycles since 2000, with the current cycle being the seventh, characterized by a pattern of short bull markets followed by prolonged bear markets [5][14] Group 2: Market Phases - The report outlines four distinct phases of a rapid market uptrend: 1. Rapid initiation phase, where the market quickly rises from the bottom, primarily benefiting financial sectors and undervalued stocks 2. Acceleration phase, where core assets and scarce resources see increased investment 3. Peak phase, characterized by a surge in small-cap stocks and high-volatility sectors like technology 4. Risk emergence phase, where market volume peaks and signs of stagnation appear [1][14] Group 3: Sector Investment Logic - In the computer industry, focus should be on domestic leaders in areas such as localization and computing power, with significant growth expected in IC design and industrial software [17][18] - The machinery sector is advised to target two main lines: severely undervalued industry leaders in lithium battery and photovoltaic equipment, and cyclical recovery plays in engineering machinery and elevators, benefiting from real estate policy support [21][23][24] - The pharmaceutical sector should concentrate on undervalued segments and innovative supply chains, while the lithium battery industry should focus on downstream enterprises and key material leaders [1][16][21]