白酒行业：如何看本轮白酒股价的上涨？

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the liquor sector, indicating an expectation that stock prices will outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [33]. Core Insights - The liquor sector has experienced a significant rebound, with the food and beverage sector rising by 37% and the liquor index increasing by 40% in the five trading days before the National Day holiday. This surge is attributed to various policy factors and historical comparisons [9][10]. - The liquor industry has shown a clear cyclical pattern, with a complete cycle approximately every ten years. The current adjustment phase has lasted nearly four years, and the stock prices have steadily declined without a "hard landing" scenario [9][10]. - Stock prices are leading the fundamentals, similar to the situation in 2014. The price of Moutai, a key indicator in the liquor industry, has not shown significant recovery, with recent price adjustments observed [16][18]. - The report highlights a potential turning point in profitability, drawing parallels to the previous cycle where policy reforms initiated a bull market. The liquor sector is expected to transition from absolute returns to relative returns, with key changes in profit forecasts being crucial for stock performance [23][29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Sector Oversold - The liquor sector has underperformed for four consecutive years, making a rebound inevitable. Historical data shows that the sector has experienced significant adjustments, with the current downturn comparable to previous cycles [9][10]. Section 2: Stock Prices Leading Fundamentals - The report notes that stock prices are currently ahead of the underlying fundamentals, with Moutai prices showing slight declines. The macroeconomic indicators, such as PPI, are also at low levels, indicating a need for careful observation of future trends [16][18]. Section 3: Profitability Turning Point - The report discusses the potential for a turning point in profitability, referencing the 2014 bull market driven by policy reforms. The liquor sector is expected to see a shift from absolute to relative returns, with profit forecast adjustments playing a critical role [23][29]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several key companies within the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Jianshe Yuan, and Yingjia Gongjiu, anticipating a recovery in demand following the sector's adjustment period [29].