分析师：王强峰S0010522110002邮箱：wangqf@hazq.com

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the light hydrocarbon chemical industry, particularly recommending Satellite Chemical due to its strong position and potential for recovery as ethane prices decline [3] Core Views - Ethane prices rose to 22.8 cents/gallon as of October 4, with a weekly increase of 9.32%, while the ethane cracking spread decreased by 4.86% week-over-week [3] - Natural gas prices increased by 4.14% week-over-week, while Brent crude oil and ethylene prices declined [3] - Downstream products such as polyethylene, ethylene oxide, and polyether monomers showed historical price percentiles of 23.30%, 14.13%, and 34.55%, respectively [3] - The report forecasts a continued decline in ethane prices due to a loose supply-demand balance, with downstream demand expected to recover further this year [3] Product and Raw Material Prices - As of October 4, polyethylene prices rose by 0.22% week-over-week to 8,258 RMB/ton, while ethylene oxide prices remained stable at 6,900 RMB/ton [10][13] - Polyether monomer and ethylene glycol prices were 8,200 RMB/ton and 4,525 RMB/ton, respectively, with ethylene glycol showing a 0.33% weekly increase [17] - Styrene and ethylene prices declined by 1.78% and 1.68% week-over-week, respectively, to 8,926 RMB/ton and 6,314 RMB/ton [20] - Acrylic acid prices remained stable at 7,200 RMB/ton, while acrylic acid butyl ester and polypropylene prices increased by 0.17% and 0.43%, respectively [23][25] - Natural gas prices rose by 4.14% week-over-week to 2.67 USD/MMBtu, and ethane prices increased by 9.32% to 1,230 RMB/ton [28][33] Product Price Spreads - The ethylene-ethane spread narrowed by 4.86% week-over-week to 4,736 RMB/ton, while the ethylene glycol-ethylene spread expanded by 12.12% to 736 RMB/ton [40][43] - The polyethylene-ethylene spread widened by 6.93% to 1,944 RMB/ton, while the styrene-benzene-ethylene spread narrowed by 7.00% to 630 RMB/ton [40][46] - The acrylic acid-acrylic spread expanded by 4.17% to 2,510 RMB/ton, and the polypropylene-acrylic spread widened by 19.01% to 1,080 RMB/ton [49][53] Competitive Routes and Downstream Demand - The ethylene-naphtha spread narrowed by 8.01% week-over-week to -1,357 RMB/ton, while the MTO route spread decreased by 3.64% to 4,008 RMB/ton [57] - Ethane cracking showed a significant cost advantage over other routes, with ethane prices declining recently [60] - Downstream demand showed mixed trends, with auto sales increasing by 9.40% month-over-month to 2.18 million units in August, while housing completion area declined by 36.53% year-over-year to 33.77 million square meters [64] Company Valuations - Satellite Chemical is projected to have an EPS of 1.73 RMB in 2024E and 2.06 RMB in 2025E, with a PE ratio of 10.81x and 9.06x, respectively [66] - Wanhua Chemical is expected to achieve an EPS of 5.81 RMB in 2024E and 6.91 RMB in 2025E, with PE ratios of 15.71x and 13.22x, respectively [66] - Hengli Petrochemical is forecasted to have an EPS of 1.27 RMB in 2024E and 1.57 RMB in 2025E, with PE ratios of 12.32x and 9.94x, respectively [66]