商品风格轮动周报： 中美宏观驱动转向积极

Market Performance - The top-performing domestic commodities before the National Day holiday were SSE 50, soda ash, CSI 300, CSI 500, glass, iron ore, coking coal, coke, PVC, and palm oil, with gains concentrated in equity indices, ferrous metals, and building materials[5] - The worst-performing domestic commodities were fuel oil, live pigs, styrene, wire rod, low-sulfur fuel oil, LPG, tin, corn starch, corn, and apples, with losses concentrated in energy and agricultural products[5] Style Rotation - The cycle/growth style rotated to underweight growth, while the industrial/agricultural style rotated to overweight Nanyang Industrial Products[2] - The precious metals/industrial products style rotated to overweight Nanyang Industrial Products, and the gold/oil ratio rotated to overweight gold[2] Arbitrage Performance - The top three performing arbitrage pairs were the rebar-hot rolled coil spread, PP-3*MA spread, and palm oil-soybean oil spread[2] - The worst three performing arbitrage pairs were the rapeseed oil-palm oil spread, FU-SC spread, and L-PP spread[2] Macro Drivers - Strong US non-farm payroll data in September slightly cooled market expectations for rate cuts, indicating resilience in the US economy[2] - Domestic policy optimism has risen again with the introduction of growth-stabilizing policies, driving a rebound in undervalued sectors like equity indices, ferrous metals, and building materials[2] Risk Factors - Potential distortion in profit data due to differences in spot targets and constants in profit formulas[16]