可转债四季度策略：反转进攻

Market Overview - The current market is in a broad rally phase, suggesting investors should increase allocation to convertible bonds and other equity-like assets[1] - Historical bull markets typically progress through phases: broad rally, differentiation, thematic plays, and late-stage recovery[1] Investment Strategy - Emphasis on increasing allocation to equity-like assets, including convertible bonds, based on historical bull market patterns[1] - Selection of convertible bonds should consider industry rotation and the unique characteristics of each bond[1] Selection Criteria - Six angles for selecting convertible bonds include: - Bonds with underlying stocks that have declined over 85% from their peak and are priced below 115 RMB[2] - Bonds with a yield to maturity (YTM) exceeding 7% due to overpricing of credit risk[2] - Bonds that have dropped over 50% from their highest price since issuance and are priced below 115 RMB[2] - Bonds classified as equity-like and priced below 120 RMB[2] - Bonds with underlying stocks valued under 3 billion RMB and rated AA/AA-/AA+[2] - Bonds held by funds with a holding ratio exceeding 20%[2] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include insufficient improvement in economic fundamentals, unexpected adjustments in the bond market, and weaker-than-expected overseas liquidity conditions[3]