如何看9月外储及后续人民币汇率？

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - In September 2024, China's official foreign exchange reserves reached $33163.67 billion, an increase of $281.5 billion month-on-month, surpassing $3.3 trillion[1] - The positive impact on foreign reserves was primarily due to the depreciation of the US dollar index, which fell by 0.96% from 101.7 at the end of August to 100.8 in September[1] - The fluctuation of non-US currencies against the dollar contributed approximately $163 billion to the foreign reserves, while the decline in major economies' bond yields added about $175 billion[1] Group 2: Currency Exchange Rate Trends - The US dollar index continued to decline in September, leading to a 1.02% appreciation of the RMB against the dollar, closing at 7.02[2] - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose to 98.5 by the end of September, reflecting a 0.6% increase for the month, indicating a significant appreciation against a basket of currencies[2] - The appreciation of the RMB is driven by two main factors: the decline in the US dollar index and the reversal of expectations in the real economy regarding the RMB exchange rate[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to exhibit a two-way fluctuation and oscillation trend for the remainder of the year, influenced by domestic fiscal policy and external economic conditions[3] - The Chinese government has indicated a more proactive fiscal policy stance, which may support the RMB's appreciation if implemented effectively[3] - The potential for further monetary policy easing exists, with expectations of additional reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions in response to economic conditions[4]