农林牧渔行业投资策略月报：4季度猪价有望延续强势，关注秋季水产投苗恢复情况

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The pig farming sector is expected to maintain strong performance, with the average national pig price in September 2024 at 18.96 CNY/kg, down 7.07% month-on-month but up 14.55% year-on-year. The fourth quarter is anticipated to be a traditional peak consumption season, which may support prices [17][18]. - The price of white feather chicken has seen a decline, with the average price in Yantai at approximately 3.58 CNY/jin, down 4.89% month-on-month. However, the price of chicken seedlings has increased by 2.60% month-on-month, indicating potential recovery in the sector [28]. - The feed and animal health sectors are experiencing a decline in raw material prices, with corn prices down 3% and fishmeal prices down 7% in September. This is expected to improve profitability in aquaculture [2][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In September 2024, the agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.48 percentage points, with the agricultural sector rising by 19.48% compared to the CSI 300's 20.97% [10][12]. Livestock Farming - The average profit for self-bred pigs in September was 484.84 CNY/head, down 104.56 CNY/head month-on-month but up 519.70 CNY/head year-on-year. The average profit for purchased piglets was 298.46 CNY/head, down 95.82 CNY/head month-on-month but up 394.28 CNY/head year-on-year [17][18]. Raw Materials - The average domestic corn price in September was approximately 2328 CNY/ton, down 3.03% month-on-month and down 20.06% year-on-year. The prices of wheat and soybean meal have increased [33]. Aquaculture - The price of shrimp increased by 13.33% month-on-month in September, while the prices of other aquatic products showed mixed trends due to seasonal supply fluctuations [2][33]. Pet Food - In August, the export value of packaged pet food (cats & dogs) reached 9.87 million CNY, up 2.73% month-on-month and up 33.44% year-on-year. The cumulative export value from January to August was 69.26 million CNY, up 25.09% year-on-year [2].