Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the cement industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is expected to remain weak in Q4 2024 due to sluggish demand and insufficient price rebound momentum [1] - Industry profitability is at a low point, awaiting supply-side improvements [1] - Cement prices are expected to recover within a certain range due to industry self-discipline and staggered production, but the rebound will be limited by weak demand [13] Industry Policy - Policies in 2023 and 2024 focus on energy conservation, carbon reduction, and capacity replacement to promote industry transformation [2] - The "Dual Carbon Goals" have made energy conservation and carbon reduction key themes for the cement industry [2] - By 2025, the cement clinker capacity is targeted to be controlled at around 1.8 billion tons, with 30% of capacity reaching energy efficiency benchmark levels [2] - Stricter capacity replacement policies have been introduced to curb overcapacity and prevent the transfer of outdated production lines [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Cement demand remains weak in 2024 due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate market and slowing infrastructure investment growth [4] - Fixed asset investment growth has been below 4.50% in 2024, with real estate development investment continuing to decline [6] - Infrastructure investment saw a slight recovery in Q1 2024 but slowed down in Q2, limiting its impact on cement demand [6] - Cement clinker capacity has been declining since 2020, with 1,569 production lines and a capacity of 1.803 billion tons/year by the end of 2023 [7] - Cement production in 2024 (Jan-Jul) was 1.001 billion tons, down 10.50% year-on-year [8] - Cement inventory pressure improved in 2024, with a storage ratio fluctuating around 65% [10] Price Trends - Cement prices in 2024 have shown a trend of "low-level fluctuations and gradual recovery" [13] - The average cement price from Jan-Jul 2024 was 337 yuan/ton, down 2.12% from Dec 2023 [13] - Price recovery is expected in Q4 2024 due to industry self-discipline and staggered production, but the rebound will be limited by weak demand [13] Profitability - The cement industry's profitability is at a low point in H1 2024, with many companies reporting losses [15] - Among 16 sample companies, 14 reported year-on-year declines in revenue, and 14 reported declines in net profit, with 8 companies reporting negative net profits [15] - Industry profitability is expected to remain under pressure in Q4 2024 due to weak demand and limited price recovery [15]
2024年第四季度水泥行业展望：需求整体弱势 价格反弹动力不足
Da Gong Guo Ji·2024-10-08 07:15