应收账款类资产证券化市场分析报告 目 录 | 一、市场概况 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 二、市场创新 | 5 | | 全国首单工程机械类应收账款 ABS | 5 | | 全国首单分离式保函资产转让 ABS | 5 | | 全国首单外币计价境外资产 ABN | 6 | | 三、评级调整、违约及展期 | 6 | | 四、总结与展望 | 6 | 分析师 裘季维 010-67413459 结构融资部 行业组长 qiujiwei@dagongcredit.com 魏 莱 010-67413527 结构融资部 分析师 weilai@dagongcredit.com 专题研究 资产证券化 专题研究 |资产证券化 客户服务 电话：010-67413300 客服：4008-84-4008 Email：research@dagongcredit.com 2025 年 4 月 11 日 2024 年，应收账款类证券化产品在各类 基础资产类型中占据市场主流地位，建筑类央 企为主要发行主体，政策背景下无增信产品发 行规模继续提升，优先级发行利率水平较低。 同时，产品创新持续涌现，产品结构进一步优 化和丰富，从而充分发挥 ...

行业研究 |新型储能 行业研究 新型储能 新型储能在电力行业绿色低碳发展背景下的机遇与挑战 文/李紫嫣、王鹏 摘要 近年来，我国电力行业绿色低碳发展不断取得新成就，截至 2024 年末，我国新能源装机 规模首次超越火电，然而新能源发电的波动性对电网稳定性构成挑战。在此背景下，具备布局 灵活、响应迅速等优势的新型储能技术成为增强电力系统弹性的关键。本文梳理了新型储能领 域的重要政策，并分析了新型储能的发展现状，最后提炼了新型储能面临的机遇与挑战。政策 方面，2021 年以来新型储能领域政策暖风频吹，推动新型储能蓬勃发展。发展现状方面，我国 新型储能累计装机规模实现跨越式增长，规模首次超过抽水蓄能；装机主要分布在风光资源大 省和用电需求大省；大型新型储能项目加速落地；长时储能占比提升。机遇与挑战方面，政策 红利、新能源消纳和电网调峰需求及技术降本催生增长动能，但锂资源对外依赖、安全风险、 非锂技术产业化滞后、收益机制不完善及全球贸易环境复杂多变等问题为新型储能发展带来现 实挑战。未来需突破技术瓶颈、优化市场机制，推动新型储能从政策驱动向市场化发展进阶。 正文 在碳达峰、碳中和目标的引领下，我国能源体系正加速向清洁 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry in China Core Insights - The overall trend of housing prices in China is declining in 2024, with significant differentiation between new and second-hand housing markets, as well as among first, second, and third-tier cities [1][3][12] - The decline in housing prices serves as a window to assess urban economic resilience, reflecting factors such as population flow, city attractiveness, and residents' future development expectations [1][17] - The new housing market is currently more representative of urban economic resilience, while the second-hand market is expected to gain more significance as irrational disturbances diminish [1][18] Summary by Sections 1. Definition and Significance of Urban Economic Resilience - Urban economic resilience refers to a city's ability to withstand external shocks and maintain stable economic operations [2] - Cities with strong economic resilience can reduce losses in adversity and quickly identify new development opportunities, contributing to sustainable economic growth [2] 2. Overall Trend of Housing Prices in 2024 - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, housing prices in 70 major cities in China are generally declining, with new and second-hand markets showing distinct trends [3][8] - The average price index for new residential properties in these cities showed a month-on-month decline of 1% from January to December 2024, with a year-on-year decline that expanded until October before slightly narrowing in November and December [3][5] - The proportion of cities with rising prices has remained low, indicating a lack of confidence among buyers [3][4] 3. Analysis of Housing Price Changes and Urban Economic Resilience - The average price decline for new homes in first-tier cities is -0.34%, while second and third-tier cities show declines of -0.47% and -0.53%, respectively, indicating stronger resilience in first-tier cities [13][15] - The second-hand housing market is under greater pressure, with all cities experiencing price declines, and the market is expected to remain under pressure for a longer period [8][12] - Cities with smaller price declines tend to have more stable economic fundamentals and better resilience against external shocks, while those with larger declines may face economic vulnerabilities [17][20] 4. Insights from Housing Price Changes - The report highlights that cities with better housing price performance, such as Xi'an and Chengdu, exhibit stronger economic resilience due to diversified industrial structures and robust infrastructure [16][19] - The report suggests that housing price changes can serve as a significant indicator of urban economic resilience, providing insights into the stability of economic structures and population attraction [17][20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the week from March 10 - 16, 2025, the credit bond issuance scale increased by 11.37% week - on - week, but the net financing growth rate turned negative. The economy faced pressure in imports and exports from January - February, yet the trade surplus grew significantly. Policies were introduced to boost consumption, and the central bank's open - market operations led to a net capital withdrawal while keeping the capital market stable. The bond market saw the implementation of policies to optimize the financing environment for private enterprises, and new bond types emerged [1][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - dynamics - **Economic Data**: From January - February 2025, China's imports and exports were under pressure. Exports grew by 2.3% year - on - year to $539.94 billion, but the growth rate dropped by 8.4 percentage points compared to December 2024. Imports decreased by 8.4% to $369.43 billion. The trade surplus reached $170.52 billion, a 36.9% year - on - year increase. Exports to major economies slowed down, with different performances in different regions. In terms of specific commodities, exports of mechanical and electrical products were strong, while labor - intensive products declined. Imports of commodities decreased, but high - tech products increased [5][6][7]. - **Policy**: On March 16, the "Boosting Consumption Special Action Plan" was issued, aiming to increase consumption ability, create effective demand, and enhance consumption willingness through supply - demand coordination [8]. - **Funding**: From March 10 - 14, the central bank's open - market operations led to a net capital withdrawal of 19.17 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital interest rates remained stable, with DR001 and DR007 showing slight upward trends [9][10]. 3.2 Bond Market Observation - **Bond Market Policy**: On March 14, the "Action Plan for Further Supporting the High - quality Development of Private Enterprises in the Inter - bank Bond Market" was released, aiming to optimize the financing environment for private enterprises and promote the issuance of new bond types [11]. - **Bond Issuance**: This week, 1,203 bonds were issued with a total scale of 2.097928 trillion yuan and a net financing of 373.225 billion yuan. The number of credit bond issuances increased by 23.33% week - on - week, and the scale increased by 11.37%. However, due to a large increase in repayment, the net financing turned negative, with an outflow of 122.5 billion yuan. The average issuance interest rate of most bond types increased by 6.41BP [12][13][14]. - **New Bond Types**: The first high - growth industrial bond in the cultural and tourism industry, "25 Shaanxi Tourism Y1", was successfully issued, with a scale of 500 million yuan and a coupon rate of 4.33%. This year, the issuance of high - growth bonds has accelerated, with 7 bonds issued and a total amount of 7.06 billion yuan [15]. 3.3 Risk Warning - **Subject Rating Downgrade**: This week, the subject ratings of 2 issuers were downgraded, including China Gezhouba Group Co., Ltd. and China Gezhouba Group Co., Limited [17][18]. - **Subject Outlook Downgrade**: This week, the rating outlook of 1 issuer, Nanjing Bank Co., Ltd., was downgraded [19].

大公国际：评级视角解读——更加积极的财政政策助力 提升财政体系韧性 国际合作部 何岩浩 2025 年 3 月 18 日 2025 年"两会"定调实施更加积极的财政政策，财政赤字率参照 4.0%安排， 新增 11.86 万亿元政府债务规模。我们认为，中国扩大财政赤字率至更具弹性的 目标区间具有充分的空间——中央政府杠杆率低位、政府净金融资产高位、融资 成本低位。同时，当前实施更加积极的逆周期财政政策也是必要的，从评级视角 看，经济发展的内生动力是财政可持续性的根本保障，更加积极的逆周期财政政 策既是应对短期经济下行压力的必要举措，更是推动经济结构转型、培育新质生 产力的战略考量，使中国在经济高质量发展中实现财政系统的韧性进化。 一、实施更加积极的财政政策具备充裕的空间。 首先，财政赤字率目标应根据国家具体情况而定，且中国财政赤字率低于平 均水平。目前，财政赤字率标准通常来自 1992 年签署的《马斯特里赫特条约》 里规定的 3.0%的水平，但一方面该标准是为了建立统一货币，以保障欧洲共同 体国家经济货币财政的趋同，避免差距过大，另一方面其适用的国家经济发展水 平较高。因此，该标准在国际层面的适用性不高，且在欧元 ...

宏观研究 大公国际：《提振消费专项行动方案》出台，供需两端 协同发力，提振内需助力经济回暖 技术研究部（研究院） 涂文婕 2025 年 3 月 20 日 亮点一：消费增速回升，市场整体回暖。国家统计局数据显示，今年 1-2 月， 社会消费品零售总额达 83,731 亿元，同比增长 4.0%，增速比上年全年加快 0.5 个百分点。这一数据表明，消费市场呈现回暖态势。消费增速的回升得益于宏观 经济政策的持续发力以及消费者信心的逐步恢复，特别是在春节期间，消费需求 的集中释放为市场注入了活力。 亮点二：消费升级趋势明显，品质需求增长。消费升级是近年来中国消费市 场的重要特征，消费品以旧换新政策的实施对相关商品销售起到了明显的拉动作 用。1-2 月的数据显示，限额以上单位的粮油食品类、体育娱乐用品类商品零售 额分别增长 11.5%和 25.0%，通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类、家用电器 宏观研究 和音像器材类等商品零售额也实现了两位数增长。消费者对高品质生活和科技产 品的需求持续增长，消费结构正在从满足基本生活需求向追求品质生活转变。 摘要：近期国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》（下称《方案》）部 署了 8 ...

热点研究 一、关税冲击的量化分析:贸易规模、结构与产业链重构 下面尝试从贸易规模、成本分摊以及产业链重构三个维度对关税的影响进行 量化,以其分析特朗普增加关税对中美双方的不同影响。这一分析也有助于判断 未来美国关税政策的走向。 (一)关税上升导致中美贸易额和贸易结构出现变化 2025年3月18日 | 宏观债市组| 技术研究部(研究院、业务风险控制部) | liujinhe@dagongcredit.com| 【摘要】两会对中美关系本质的定调是"互利共赢",然而近来双方围绕贸 易平衡的关税之争却有不断升级之势,表明一定时期内双方需要在各自利益博弈 的基础上重新寻找互利共赢的动态平衡。自2025年1月份特朗普重返白宫以来, 中美之间的关税博弈在特朗普第一任期的基础上进一步升级至目前的"关税2.0" 阶段。近期双方关税之争进一步深化,特朗普政府在2月份对中、加、墨三国加 征 10%~25%的关税基础上,3月份对中国再加征 10%的关税。随着各贸易国间的 关税反制,未来全球关税之争的激烈度或将会不断攀升。本文基于近年来中美之 间的贸易数据,尝试分析关税对中国GDP、贸易结构及产业链的影响,揭示其短 期冲击与长期倒逼效 ...

行业研究 行业研究|旅游行业研究 旅游行业研究 大公国际：政策引领业态创新，供需协同驱动旅游业 高质量发展 文/曹李慧 摘要 2024 年，国家层面发布多项旅游行业利好政策，引导和规范旅游行业发展方向，提 升旅游基础设施和服务体验，一系列政策形成"硬基建+软实力"的组合拳，既为当下旅 游市场复苏提供支撑，更为行业长期可持续发展构筑制度性优势。旅游行业快速复苏， 进入稳步增长的发展阶段，呈现出多元化、高质量发展态势，"旅游+"模式、跨境游等 成为当前旅游行业消费热点。2024 年前三季度，多数旅游企业营业收入同比增长，依赖 门票收入的传统商业模式受到冲击、跨境旅游分流国内需求等导致部分企业收入盈利能 力同比下降。预计 2025 年中国旅游行业将进入高质量发展新阶段，需求端呈现消费分 层优化与跨境双向复苏特征，供给端通过业态融合创新与技术赋能加速升级，整体行业 景气度有望在供需协同演进中持续提升。 正文 一、旅游行业政策环境 2024 年，国家层面发布多项旅游行业利好政策，引导和规范旅游行业发展方向，提 升旅游基础设施和服务体验，推动行业健康与可持续发展。 2024 年，我国旅游行业迎来了多项利好政策，为行业高质 ...

行业研究 多晶硅行业研究 大公国际：多晶硅产业触底调整，需关注后续供需错配改善情况 文/刘银玲 王婷、张帅 摘要 2024 年以来多晶硅进入过剩周期，价格持续探底，企业盈利能力显著承压，对此部 分硅料企业采取减产控产检修等措施应对市场压力，多晶硅产能出清和去库存加快短期 内将有利于缓解产能过剩，市场供应大幅减少对多晶硅价格提供有力支撑，此外，为引 导产能质量提升，国家对多晶硅的产业政策整体呈现积极支持并加强监管特点，但后续 受新增产能释放、市场供应增加等因素影响，多晶硅价格回归供需基本面主导的合理区 间仍待观望，需关注后续供需错配改善情况。 正文 政策环境 多晶硅为光伏组件的关键原材料，处于产业链的上游核心环节，近年来国家对多晶 硅的产业政策整体呈现积极支持并加强监管特点，以引导及促进行业健康可持续发展； 标准规范等方面政策出台有望改善多晶硅行业供需格局，并引导产能质量提升，为行业 高质量发展提供保障。 在"双碳"目标的推动下，绿色低碳已成为我国能源发展的重要方向，能源消费结 构正加速向清洁低碳转型。作为能源转型的重要引擎，光伏行业在政策引导、市场主导、 技术进步等多重因素作用下快速发展，规模持续扩大、技术迭 ...

行业研究 多晶硅行业研究 大公国际：多晶硅产业触底调整，需关注后续供需错配改善情况 文/刘银玲 王婷、张帅 摘要 2024 年以来多晶硅进入过剩周期，价格持续探底，企业盈利能力显著承压，对此部 分硅料企业采取减产控产检修等措施应对市场压力，多晶硅产能出清和去库存加快短期 内将有利于缓解产能过剩，市场供应大幅减少对多晶硅价格提供有力支撑，此外，为引 导产能质量提升，国家对多晶硅的产业政策整体呈现积极支持并加强监管特点，但后续 受新增产能释放、市场供应增加等因素影响，多晶硅价格回归供需基本面主导的合理区 间仍待观望，需关注后续供需错配改善情况。 正文 政策环境 多晶硅为光伏组件的关键原材料，处于产业链的上游核心环节，近年来国家对多晶 硅的产业政策整体呈现积极支持并加强监管特点，以引导及促进行业健康可持续发展； 标准规范等方面政策出台有望改善多晶硅行业供需格局，并引导产能质量提升，为行业 高质量发展提供保障。 在"双碳"目标的推动下，绿色低碳已成为我国能源发展的重要方向，能源消费结 构正加速向清洁低碳转型。作为能源转型的重要引擎，光伏行业在政策引导、市场主导、 技术进步等多重因素作用下快速发展，规模持续扩大、技术迭 ...