(八) 大公国际资信评估有限公司 行业研究 人形机器人行业研究 供需格局 老龄化加剧与劳动力供给收缩的双重压力,催生人形机器人刚性需求。从人口数据 看,根据国家统计局数据显示,2024年我国 65 岁及以上人口达 2.20 亿人,占总人口的 比重为 15.64%,老龄化进程持续深化;与此同时,劳动力市场收缩态势显著,我国劳动 人口数量（15-64 岁人口）从 2013 年的峰值 10.10 亿人下降至 2024 年的 9.66 亿人, 自 2010年以来,劳动人口数量占比呈下滑趋势。从长期趋势研判,近十年来我国人口出生 率持续走低,叠加人口负增长势能逐步释放,未来老龄化程度将进一步加深,劳动力缺 口将呈扩大态势。这一人口结构的变化将传导至产业端，劳动力供给收紧推高企业用工 成本,尤其在制造业、养老服务等劳动密集型领域,"招工难、用工贵"成为制约行业 发展的普遍痛点。在此背景下,产业向自动化、智能化转型成为必然选择,也是顺应时 代发展的需求,具备彷人动作能力、可适配多元场景的人形机器人,可以替代工业场景 中的重复性劳动,并弥补养老护理等民生领域的人力缺口。 供需起势,链动未来:迎接人形机器人的产业浪潮 文/王婷 ...

> 六公国际资信评估有限公司 行业研究 宠物行业 从规模扩张到生态重构：中国宠物行业的高质量发展路径与未来趋势 文/王洋 一、市场格局: 规模扩张与结构性分化 中国宠物行业正快速扩张,消费持续升级,政策支持力度加大,整体处于高增长、 强韧性的黄金发展期,未来空间广阔。 中国宠物行业已进入快速发展通道,市场规模持续扩大。据 Wind 数据统计,2015 年中国宠物市场规模为 725 亿元，到 2024 年已增长至 3,598 亿元，年复合增长率约为 20.66%。其中城镇宠物(犬猫)消费市场规模达 3,002亿元,同比增长 7.5%,预计 2027 年市场规模达 4,042 亿元。行业整体进入持续、高速的"黄金发展期"。 图 1 2015 年以来中国宠物市场规模情况 亿元 4,000 60.00 50.00 3,000 40. OC 2,000 30. 00 20.00 1,000 10. 00 0.00 0 2015 2016 2017 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 中国:市场规模:宠物 ■中国:市场规模:宠物:同比 数据来源:Wind,大公国际整理 行业整体增长主要由 ...

行业研究 深海经济 深海经济 深海经济：引领海洋经济未来发展的新引擎，未来产 业规模化与集群化发展加速 文/王鹏、李紫嫣 摘要 海洋经济向深海快速延伸，全球深海经济整体处于技术验证向商业化过渡的关键阶 段。深海经济作为开发深海资源形成的综合性产业集群或经济形态，已成为战略性新兴 产业竞争的核心领域，是引领海洋经济未来发展的新引擎。中国凭借政策与技术双驱动 在深海装备、资源勘探等领域形成局部领先优势，已初步形成"技术突破-政策支持-产 业落地"的闭环，深海经济处于从科研突破、规模化应用向产业价值释放加速迈进的阶 段，未来产业规模化与集群化发展加速。 深海广义上通常指水深超过200米的海域。针对深海，不同领域对其划分有所差异， 海洋科学领域一般认为水深 200 米以下海洋领域为深海，海洋工程及资源勘探开发领域 一般认为深海为 1,000 米深以下的海域，海洋油气开发领域以 500 米水深为划分深海界 限，而海水养殖领域通常以 20 米水深为界。深海具有低温、高压、黑暗及地质复杂等 特点，同时其海洋生态系统更具脆弱性，更容易受人类活动的影响。但深海领域中矿产 资源、油气资源及生物资源丰富，其中油气资源包括天然气、石 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the drone industry Core Insights - The Chinese drone industry has become a strategic emerging industry driven by national strategy, with a leading global market size and a complete industrial chain, transitioning from "manufacturing-led" to "technology-driven and ecosystem construction" [1] - The industry faces multiple challenges, including reliance on imported core technologies, long commercial return cycles, and international compliance and geopolitical risks, with future development focusing on intelligence, greening, airspace digitization, and market diversification [1] Strategic Positioning and Policy Support - The drone industry has rapidly developed under coordinated policy design, airspace management reform, and infrastructure construction, establishing a solid foundation for the large-scale application of the low-altitude economy [2] - The industry is defined as unmanned aerial vehicles operating in low-altitude airspace, which is recognized as a core carrier of the low-altitude economy [2] - A comprehensive policy framework has been established, including mandatory national standards and regulations to support the industry's standardized development [3][4] Market Size and Import-Export Patterns - The global drone market is projected to grow from USD 35.28 billion in 2024 to USD 67.64 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.90% [5] - The Chinese civil drone market is expected to reach approximately CNY 146.8 billion in 2024, with a forecasted market size exceeding CNY 400 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 18.3% from 2024 to 2030 [5] - China remains the world's largest drone manufacturer and exporter, with significant growth in both export volume and value [6][7] Industry Chain Structure and Layout - The Chinese drone industry has established a complete industrial chain from upstream core components to midstream manufacturing and downstream application services, showcasing global competitiveness [11] - The upstream sector includes critical components such as flight control systems and sensors, with a high reliance on imports for advanced technologies [13] - The midstream focuses on the research and production of consumer, industrial, and military drones, with leading companies dominating various segments [14] - The downstream application services cover logistics, agriculture, power inspection, and emergency rescue, with significant market shares held by key players [14] Core Challenges and Future Development Trends - The industry faces challenges such as reliance on imported high-end components, high commercialization costs in industrial applications, and complex certification processes [16] - Future trends indicate a shift towards intelligent, autonomous, and green technologies, with eVTOLs emerging as a new avenue for urban air mobility [17][18] - The integration of low-altitude economy and digital infrastructure is expected to enhance operational efficiency and regulatory compliance [18]

城投行业 (4小) 大公国际资信评估有限公司 大公国际: 城投公司布局乡村振兴-林下经济 领域研究 近年来,国家及地方层面相继出台多项政策法规扶持林下经济发展,扶持政 策不断完善,为城投公司布局林下经济提供较强的政策支持。 1 / 4 - 公用二部 | 程媛媛 | 010-67413445 2025 年 12 月**日 在债务化解与转型发展的背景下,存量资产盘活成为城投公司市场化转型的 重要方向。近年来,林下经济规模逐步扩大,国家及地方层面对林下经济扶持政 策不断完善,目前全国林下经济林地利用面积 6亿多亩,产值1万多亿元,发展 林下经济成为实现绿色发展、助力乡村振兴的重要抓手。发展林下产业为林业资 源丰富区域的城投公司产业化转型指明方向。本文基于对城投公司布局林下经济 机遇、路径及面临的挑战进行分析,为城投公司布局林下经济实现产业化转型提 供参考。 一、城投公司布局林下经济机遇 近年来,国家及地方层面相继出台多项政策法规扶持林下经济发展,扶持政 策不断完善,为城投公司布局林下经济提供较强的政策支撑。 林下经济是依托森林、林地及其生态环境,遵循可持续经营原则开展的生态 友好型复合经营活动,包括林下种植、林下养 ...

文/王鹏、赵茜 摘要 在当前中国经济转型升级的关键阶段,企业融资行为的合理性和有效性将直接影响 经济高质量发展。通过历史违约案例梳理,并对违约企业的债务风险传导及过度融资行 为表现情况进行总结,本文对企业过度融资行为的产生原因、表现与风险爆发及传导情 况进行分析,首先选取债务上限、融资渠道/成本、债务结构/资产质量、现金流量平衡 等作为识别企业过度融资行为与风险等级的主要判定指标,其次根据风险因素演变将风 险传导及爆发情况分成前期、中期和后期三个阶段,然后结合不同风险爆发阶段下过度 融资行为特点和债务风险表现,在不同风险爆发阶段设置风险预警指标及风险等级预警 区间,引入AI 等智能化手段,构建智能化风险预警系统。 专题研究 《小》 大公国际资信评估有限公司 企业过度融资行为及风险识别 大公国际: 企业过度融资行为及风险识别, 构建智能化风险预警系统 正文 企业过度融资行为需要关注有息债务总量是否超过正常经营需求、是否超过现金流 管控及调配能力、是否透支融资潜力以及融资成本是否超过盈利能力等主要表现。 过度融资是指企业有息债务总量超过自身最大可承受能力,导致有息债务反向侵蚀 经营或投资等成果,现金流调度失控,从 ...

分析周期 2025.11.24-2025.11.30 技术研究部 联系电话：010-67413343 邮箱：research@dagongcredit.com 宏观经济和债券市场一周观点 ——本周信用债发行只数、规模环比下降均超 10%，平均发行成本上行 8.18BP 本期观点摘要 宏观动态 债市观察 债券发行：信用债发行数量、规模环比双降，但净融资额维持净流入，平均发行成 本环比上行 8.18BP。 新券种：浙江二轻成功发行全国首单专项支持智能船舶科创债券。 主体级别下调：本周 2 家发行人主体级别被下调。 主体展望下调：本周无发行人评级展望被下调。 1. 宏观动态 1.1 经济数据方面，制造业 PMI 呈现弱企稳格局，服务业回落 | | | 数据来源：Wind，大公国际整理 注：红色从浅到深对应不同时间的同一指标数值从低到高。黄色为本周更新数据。 11 月综合 PMI 产出指数回落 0.3 个百分点至 49.7%，为本年度新低，全社会生产经 营活动从此前的温和扩张转向轻度收缩。制造业 PMI 指数上升 0.2 个百分点至 49.2%， 呈现"弱企稳"格局，主要体现为生产指数回到临界点附近，但新订单恢复力度 ...

专题研究 专题研究|债务化解 债务化解 大公国际：2025 年化债攻坚背景下，潍坊区县平台 化债思路分析及风险关注 文/工商部 刘佳聪 摘要 当前处于化债攻坚期，地方政府债务风险呈现区域性及结构性分化，其中潍坊区县 平台"小、散、弱"的特征进一步加剧风险管控难度，仍存在区域性风险复发压力。本 文通过总结山东省及潍坊市化债进程，从战略层的整体化债模式、操作层的区县平台自 主融资能力两个角度出发，通过借鉴贵州省、曲江新区化债思路，结合"3 号指引"及 后续债券首发案例，揭示目前潍坊市化债中需关注的核心风险。 正文 （一）山东省及潍坊市化债进程 1.1 山东省化债进程 山东省作为经济大省和债务大省，2024 年 4 月底"三债统管"政策的推出使其重点 区域债务化解取得了一定成效，为整体债务风险化解与管控赢得了时间和空间。2025 年 以来，山东省继续将债务风险化解作为重点工作，筑牢风险防控体系。主要体现如下： 一是政策力度全面升级。2025 年山东省经济工作会议强调了聚焦用力的十个重点 方面，其中包括在防范化解重点领域风险上聚焦用力，着力抓好地方债务化解特别是做 好隐性债务置换。《山东省 2024 年预算执行情况与 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the communication industry, suggesting a potential shift towards a "stronger gets stronger" dynamic due to technological and capital barriers [1]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing a transformation driven by technology and policy support, with a shift in demand from traditional to emerging services [1][39]. - The industry is expected to enter a recovery phase in Q3 2025, with capital expenditure expansion driven by technological breakthroughs and new infrastructure initiatives [39]. - The demand for AI computing power, accelerated commercialization of 5G-A, breakthroughs in 6G technology, and the rise of the "low-altitude economy" are key factors driving the industry's upgrade [1][39]. Supply Capacity Analysis - The report highlights the growth in the optical communication sector, particularly in high-speed optical modules, driven by AI computing demand and increased capital expenditure from global cloud service providers [3][10]. - The domestic penetration rate of traditional optical fiber and cable is nearing saturation, prompting companies to accelerate international expansion [5][4]. - The communication equipment integration market is recovering, with the Asia-Pacific region leading in 5G system integration and services [6]. Demand Matching Capability Analysis - The demand for optical modules, especially high-speed products for data centers, is robust, with a projected shipment increase from 6.4 million units in 2023 to over 31.9 million units by 2025 [3]. - The communication equipment market is experiencing strong growth, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 18.9% in Q2 2025, despite a contraction in 5G investment [11]. - The telecommunications service sector is seeing a shift towards emerging businesses, with significant growth in AI computing and quantum communication services [15][30]. Industry Chain Position Analysis - The communication industry is characterized by a high degree of market concentration, particularly among leading companies in optical communication and equipment integration [24][27]. - The report notes that traditional communication services are facing saturation, with new business areas becoming the core of competitive differentiation [28]. Innovation Capability Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support for technological advancements, particularly in AI, 6G, and satellite communication [31][32]. - Significant R&D investments are being directed towards AI and 6G technologies, with major companies like China Mobile leading initiatives in these areas [34]. Credit Rating Situation Analysis - The communication industry is witnessing a favorable credit environment, with a total bond issuance of 17.35 billion yuan in Q2 2025, primarily from leading companies [36][37]. - The report indicates that the dual barriers of technology and capital for leading firms will become more pronounced, reinforcing the trend towards market consolidation [36]. Cycle Development Outlook - The communication industry is expected to see revenue and profit growth, with cash flow recovery anticipated in Q3 2025 [38]. - The report forecasts a transition to an expansion phase driven by new infrastructure investments and a focus on domestic demand [39]. Key Segment Development Trends - The optical communication sector is evolving towards ultra-high-speed, intelligent, and integrated solutions, supporting the AI computing network [40]. - The commercialization of 5G-A and advancements in 6G technology are expected to enhance the capabilities of communication equipment integrators [41]. - Telecommunications services are anticipated to diversify, with new opportunities arising from the low-altitude economy and satellite internet developments [42].

Group 1: Policy Context - The concept of "involution" was officially introduced in China's policy discourse during the Politburo meeting on July 30, 2024, emphasizing the need to prevent "malicious competition" in industries[1] - The 2025 Politburo meeting reiterated the importance of optimizing market competition order and regulating disorderly competition among enterprises[2] - A series of policies and regulations have been implemented since 2020 to combat administrative monopolies and local protectionism, aiming to break the cycle of homogeneous competition[3] Group 2: Characteristics of Involution in Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises exhibit involution through homogeneous business layouts, debt-income mismatches, and administrative intervention[5] - Homogeneous business layouts are evident in three core areas: industrial parks, cultural tourism projects, and infrastructure, leading to resource wastage[5] - Debt-income mismatches result in continuous debt service payments exceeding operational income, creating a rigid financial gap and forcing enterprises into a cycle of borrowing[6] Group 3: Causes of Involution - The root causes of involution include institutional environment, government-enterprise relations, and the inherent capabilities of urban investment enterprises[8] - Institutional factors involve market segmentation and local protectionism, distorting competitive logic and limiting asset allocation[8] - Government-enterprise relations lead to urban investment enterprises being treated as "government tools," undermining their market autonomy and operational capabilities[9] Group 4: Key Paths for Counteracting Involution - Reconstructing assessment indicators to detach urban investment enterprises from local government performance metrics is crucial[11] - Transitioning urban investment enterprises from "financing platforms" to "city operators" can enhance their market-driven operational capabilities[13] - Promoting cross-regional cooperation among urban investment enterprises can facilitate resource sharing and risk mitigation, transforming competition into collaboration[15]