建筑行业：2024年四季度建筑行业投资状况将有所改善，预计全年投资水平将与去年基本持平

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment level in the construction industry for 2024 is expected to remain roughly flat compared to the previous year [3]. Core Insights - Infrastructure investment is guided by the "Three Major Projects," with expanded policy support and a focus on technology innovation and new infrastructure [2][4]. - Real estate investment policies have been relaxed on both supply and demand sides, with significant declines in real estate investment and sales observed in the first eight months of 2024 [5][6]. - The construction industry is expected to see a recovery in downstream demand and an improvement in investment conditions in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to favorable policies [7][8]. Industry Policy - In 2024, infrastructure investment is prioritized with a focus on "Three Major Projects," and policies are expected to remain supportive [2][4]. - The central government has outlined funding sources and project planning for infrastructure investment, with a fiscal deficit rate set at 3% and an increase in local government special bonds [2]. - Real estate policies have been actively released, including measures to support financing for qualified projects and adjustments to mortgage rates and down payment ratios [4][6]. Industry Demand - From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment growth slowed, while real estate investment saw a significant decline, with expectations for a recovery in the fourth quarter [5][6]. - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.4%, with a decrease in growth rates due to low new project starts and extreme weather [5]. - Real estate development investment reached 69,284 billion yuan, down 10.2% year-on-year, marking the largest decline since 2021 [6][7]. Key Indicators in Construction Industry - In the first half of 2024, the total output value of the construction industry grew by 4.6% year-on-year, although the growth rate slowed [7]. - New contract amounts decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a decline in new business opportunities [7]. - The construction business activity index showed a downward trend, influenced by the real estate market, but is expected to recover with policy support in the fourth quarter [8]. Bond Issuance Analysis - From January to August 2024, the issuance rates and spreads of bonds by construction companies showed a negative correlation with the credit ratings of the issuers [9][10]. - The overall bond issuance rates were relatively low, with variations based on the credit ratings of the issuers [10].