存量房贷利率调降落地,一线城市政策进一步放松
Orient Securities·2024-10-08 08:03

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the real estate industry in China [4] Core Insights - The real estate sector index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.7% in the 40th week, with the CSI 300 index closing at 4017.85, reflecting a weekly increase of 8.5% [11][12] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a policy to unify the minimum down payment for commercial personal housing loans to no less than 15%, eliminating the distinction between first and second homes [15][44] - New home sales in 44 major cities decreased by 22.6% compared to the previous week, totaling 16,700 units, while second-hand home sales dropped by 57.8% to 7,000 units [18][23] Summary by Sections Market Review - In the 40th week, the real estate sector index reported a weekly increase of 9.2%, while the CSI 300 index rose by 8.5% and the ChiNext index surged by 15.4% [11][12] - The total land transaction value in 36 major cities reached 35.566 billion yuan, an increase of 18.44 billion yuan from the previous week [27] Policy Developments - The central bank has optimized the pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loans, which is expected to lower average rates by approximately 0.5 percentage points [43][44] - Local governments have introduced various measures to stimulate housing demand, including adjustments to housing provident fund policies and the cancellation of purchase restrictions in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [16][17][44] Sales and Inventory Data - As of the 40th week, the inventory in 18 major cities increased to 938,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 26.9 months, up by 1.3 months from the previous week [23][25] - The average premium rate for land transactions in 36 major cities decreased to 2.3%, down by 4.1% from the previous week [27][35] Company Announcements - Key companies such as Vanke A, Rongsheng Development, and Jindi Group have made announcements regarding guarantees and mergers [40][42] - CIFI Holdings and Kaisa Group reported significant revenue declines in their mid-year reports, with CIFI's revenue dropping by 35.5% and Kaisa's by 60% [42]