非农数据超预期支持美联储放慢降息步伐至25bp

Economic Indicators - The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in September, better than the expected 4.2%[9] - Non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000, significantly higher than August's 142,000 and above the 12-month average of 203,000[9] - The second quarter GDP growth was revised up from 2.8% to 3%, exceeding market expectations[9] Labor Market Insights - September wage growth was 4% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.8% and previous value of 3.9%[12] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployment has rebounded, indicating a more balanced labor market[12] - Average weekly hours worked decreased to 34.2 hours, suggesting that job growth is primarily supply-driven rather than demand-driven[12] Sector Performance - Employment growth was broad-based, with notable increases in food services (+69,000), healthcare (+45,000), government (+31,000), and construction (+25,000)[14] - The food services sector's job growth was significantly above the 12-month average of 14,000[14] Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, U.S. Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and stock markets increased, boosting confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy[14] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2024 have been adjusted, with a likelihood of a 25 basis point cut rather than 50 basis points in the next meeting[14] Future Considerations - Another non-farm payroll report will be released on November 1, which will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making[14] - The recent dockworker strike, which ended on October 1, is expected to have a limited impact on employment data due to its timing[14]