2024年四季度建筑行业投资状况将有所改善，预计全年投资水平将与去年基本持平

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the investment level in the construction industry for 2024 is expected to remain largely stable compared to the previous year [3]. Core Insights - Infrastructure investment is guided by the "Three Major Projects," with expanded policy support and a focus on technology innovation and new infrastructure [2][4]. - Real estate investment policies have been relaxed on both supply and demand sides, with significant declines in real estate investment and sales observed in the first eight months of 2024 [5][6]. - The construction industry is expected to see a recovery in demand and investment conditions in the fourth quarter of 2024 due to favorable policies [7][8]. Industry Policy - In 2024, infrastructure investment is prioritized with a focus on "Three Major Projects," and policies are expected to remain supportive [2][4]. - The government plans to issue special bonds and increase fiscal deficits to support infrastructure projects, with a total of 3.9 trillion yuan in local government special bonds planned for the year [2]. - Real estate financing mechanisms have been established to support qualified projects, and various measures have been introduced to stabilize the real estate market [4][5]. Industry Demand - From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment growth slowed, while real estate investment saw a significant decline of 10.2% year-on-year [5][6]. - The construction industry is expected to experience improved demand and investment conditions in the fourth quarter, driven by policy stimuli [7][8]. - The total value of construction contracts signed in the first half of 2024 was 149,125 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [7]. Key Indicators - The total output value of the construction industry in the first half of 2024 was 138,312 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, although the growth rate has slowed [7]. - The construction business activity index has shown a downward trend due to the impact of the real estate market, with a reading of 50.6 in August 2024 [8]. - The issuance rates and spreads of bonds by construction companies are negatively correlated with the credit ratings of the issuers [9][10].