宏观研究：9月PMI点评-制造业延续修复，供需回暖

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, a 0.7 percentage point increase from the previous value, and 0.4 percentage points higher than the five-year seasonal average[6] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI is 49.9%, up 1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a marginal recovery in domestic demand[6] - The production index for manufacturing PMI is 51.2%, a 1.4 percentage point increase, indicating a return to expansion territory[8] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The PPI is expected to decline by approximately 2.8% year-on-year in September, a drop of 1 percentage point from August's -1.8%[11] - The manufacturing PMI for finished goods inventory is at 48.5%, indicating a contraction, while the purchase price index for raw materials is at 45.1%, also showing weakness[11] - The construction PMI is at 50.7%, with new orders at 39.5%, indicating a contraction in demand despite overall expansion in the sector[14] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in expansion[13] - The service sector PMI has entered contraction territory at 49.9%, with new orders dropping to 45%, reflecting a significant decline in business activity[13] - The construction sector shows a mixed outlook, with new orders contracting but overall PMI indicating slight expansion[14] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasizes the need for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate effective demand and support economic recovery[17] - Future fiscal policies may include increasing local financial autonomy, expanding tax sources, and potentially raising the deficit ratio to boost effective demand[17]