策略月报

Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is expected to see marginal improvement in October 2024, driven by the central bank's "four arrows" policy, which includes interest rate cuts and adjustments to mortgage rates [9][35][37] - The manufacturing PMI is projected to break above 50% due to improvements in consumption and real estate sectors [18][22] Liquidity Conditions - Domestic and international liquidity is entering a turning point, with the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle, indicating a focus on employment and soft landing expectations [25][26] - China's liquidity is expected to remain neutral and loose, with significant monetary policy actions taken in September, including a 50 basis point cut in reserve requirements [25][29] Policy Changes and Risk Appetite - September marked a pivotal change in policy, with clear intentions from the government to stabilize the economy, real estate, and market expectations [35][38] - The central bank and regulatory authorities have introduced structural policies to support the capital market, including measures to enhance banks' capital and promote long-term investments [37][38] Industry Allocation for Q4 - The report suggests a shift in industry allocation towards elastic sectors and undervalued growth stocks, with a focus on securities, pharmaceuticals, and computers for Q4 [3][4][5]