重磅政策频出：下一步经济市场走势研判及应对思考

Policy Insights - Recent macroeconomic policies are more intensive and coordinated compared to previous years, indicating a significant shift towards proactive measures[2] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately CNY 1 trillion into the financial market[12] - The central bank has also reduced the 7-day reverse repo rate from 1.7% to 1.5%, a decrease of 20 basis points[12] Economic Outlook - If a comprehensive and substantial easing policy is implemented, the economic potential for 2025 remains promising[2] - The nominal GDP growth target is currently 5%, while the actual growth rate is lagging behind by 5 percentage points, necessitating an increase in fiscal spending of over CNY 6 trillion to meet targets[29] Market Trends - The stock market has seen a rapid rebound, driven by liquidity and incremental capital, with sectors like real estate, building materials, and TMT benefiting from this trend[2] - Following the "9·24" policy announcement, housing sales in 30 major cities increased by 31% week-on-week, contrasting with a -10.5% decline in the same period last year[23] Risk Factors - The effectiveness of existing policies remains to be observed, and new policies may fall short of expectations, contributing to market volatility and uncertainty[2] - The external environment presents significant uncertainties, including potential inflation risks in the U.S. and geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices[32]