宏观大类及商品月报：货币政策转松 中国资产受追捧

Global Economic Outlook - Global manufacturing PMI has shown a downward trend since June 2024, with the US and Europe experiencing declines in September, where the US PMI was at 47.3[12] - Emerging markets like Thailand maintain strong manufacturing activity, while Russia, Mexico, and Vietnam show significant cooling, and China is stabilizing[3] US Economic Resilience - The US economy demonstrated resilience with a Q2 GDP growth of 2.8% and a stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll report in September[14] - Inflation is moderating, with the August CPI at 2.5% year-on-year and core CPI at 3.2%, both lower than previous values[14] Chinese Market Dynamics - China's monetary policy is becoming more accommodative, leading to increased interest in Chinese assets, with A50 futures rising by 12.54% and the Hang Seng Index up by 9% during the National Day holiday[9][10] - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 49.8 in September, indicating a slight recovery in the sector[20] European Economic Weakness - The Eurozone's GDP grew by only 0.6% in Q2, with Germany's GDP contracting by 0.1%, while France and Spain exceeded expectations[16] - The Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI fell to 45, indicating ongoing economic challenges[17] Commodity Market Insights - Precious metals are expected to perform well due to rising geopolitical risks and the onset of a US rate cut cycle[5] - Oil prices increased by 8.62% during the holiday period, influenced by escalating conflicts in the Middle East[9][10]