假期系列一：假期宏观数据和事件综述

Market Performance - During the National Day holiday, from September 30 to October 7, 2024, the A50 futures rose by 12.54% and the Hang Seng Index increased by 9.09%[1] - In the commodities market, WTI crude oil rose by 8.62% and UK natural gas futures increased by 7.25%[1] - In the foreign exchange market, the USD/JPY rose by 4.38%, driving the US Dollar Index up by 2.12% to 102.50[1] Employment and Economic Data - In September, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 254,000, exceeding expectations of 150,000, with the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%[2][8] - Average hourly wages in September grew by 4% year-on-year, surpassing expectations[8] - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $331.64 billion in September, up by 0.86% from August, while gold reserves remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month[10] Geopolitical and Policy Developments - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with Israel potentially targeting Iranian nuclear facilities[3] - The EU has approved a proposal to impose final anti-subsidy tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, with rates ranging from 17% to 36.3%[16][18] - The US dockworkers reached a temporary agreement that includes a 62% wage increase over six years, raising average hourly wages from $39 to approximately $63[19] Monetary Policy Outlook - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve to refrain from further rate cuts have increased, with a reduced probability of a 50 basis point cut this year[2][22] - The shift in US monetary policy is influenced by the recent employment data, indicating a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments[22] - China's macroeconomic policies are becoming more proactive, with a focus on monetary easing and support for the real estate sector[27][29]