Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-08 09:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) is "Buy" with a target price of 6.31 CNY, up from the previous target of 5.79 CNY [7][5]. Core Views - The adjustment of the savings agency fee rate is expected to significantly enhance the company's profits. The net profit growth forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.49%, 3.12%, and 4.87%, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82, 0.85, and 0.89 CNY [5][4]. - The comprehensive fee rate for savings agencies is projected to decrease by 151 billion CNY to 1,006 billion CNY, leading to a reduction in the cost-to-income ratio by 4.4 percentage points to 60.4% [5][4]. - The differentiated adjustment of fee rates is beneficial for the healthy development of agency savings business, as 69% of effective personal customers and 80% of personal deposits come from agency financial services [5][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - The financial summary indicates that operating income is expected to grow from 342,507 million CNY in 2023 to 375,072 million CNY in 2026, with a net profit of 86,270 million CNY in 2023 projected to reach 93,742 million CNY by 2026 [14][16]. - The core tier one capital adequacy ratio is reported at 11.19% [9]. Market Data - The total market capitalization of Postal Savings Bank is 521,587 million CNY, with a current price of 5.26 CNY [8][7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 4.24 to 5.26 CNY over the past 52 weeks [8]. Business Operations - The bank's total assets amount to 15,726,631 million CNY, with total loans at 8,148,893 million CNY and total deposits at 13,955,963 million CNY [9][16]. - The bank's strategy includes a passive adjustment mechanism for fee rates based on the average net interest margin of the four major banks, which has been shortened from ten years to five years to enhance effectiveness [5][4].