煤炭行业周报：经济基本面预期改善，行业风险偏好提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook and expectation of market outperformance [1]. Core Insights - The coal industry is experiencing improved economic fundamentals and heightened risk appetite, driven by favorable macroeconomic policies and increased demand for both thermal and metallurgical coal [1][5]. - The report highlights a general upward trend in coal prices, supported by a combination of supply constraints and rising demand across various sectors, including electricity generation and steel production [1][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - Thermal Coal: As of October 4, the spot price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 871 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week. The expected long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal in October is 699 CNY/ton, up by 2 CNY from the previous month. Internationally, the Richard Bay coal price was 112.95 USD/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.08% [11][1]. - Metallurgical Coal: The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1870 CNY/ton, up by 5.65% week-on-week. The demand for metallurgical coal is expected to rise due to favorable policies in the real estate sector and recovering steel prices [17][1]. - Coking and Steel Industry Chain: The average price of first-grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1810 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.84%. The report anticipates continued demand for coke driven by stable steel production [28][29]. - Coal Transportation: The coastal coal transportation price index was 694.27 points as of September 27, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 4.40%. The report notes that transportation capacity is limited due to typhoon impacts [33][1]. 2. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has seen a rebound in line with the broader market, with the CITIC coal index closing at 4003.13 points, up by 18.36% week-on-week. Sub-sectors such as coal mining and coal chemical industries have also shown significant gains [42][1]. 3. Industry News Summary - Recent government policies aimed at boosting economic stability and increasing funding into the market are expected to enhance investment sentiment in the coal sector. The report suggests focusing on low price-to-book ratio stocks and those with high certainty in thermal coal production [5][1].