金属行业10月月报：政策提振信心，金属价格普涨

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [8][72]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the steel industry with improved demand and production, supported by favorable domestic policies. October is expected to remain a peak consumption month, providing support for steel prices [7][18]. - For copper, the announcement of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and domestic policy support are expected to boost market confidence and copper prices. Demand is anticipated to improve in the upcoming peak season [7][32]. - The aluminum sector shows signs of demand improvement driven by industrial needs, with expectations of rising prices due to seasonal and macroeconomic factors [7][38]. - Lithium prices have rebounded due to production adjustments by major companies, but the industry faces significant overcapacity, limiting further price increases [7][48]. - Cobalt prices are expected to remain weak due to oversupply and lack of strong seasonal demand [7][57]. - Nickel consumption remains subdued, with an ongoing oversupply situation [7][59]. - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, driven by policy support and seasonal demand across various sectors [7][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Development - Steel: The PMI index for the steel industry rose by 8.6 percentage points in September, indicating a recovery in industry sentiment. Steel production and prices are expected to be supported by favorable policies and seasonal demand [18][20]. - Copper: In September, domestic refined copper production was 1.121 million tons, with a slight increase in prices due to favorable policies and seasonal demand [32][34]. - Aluminum: Domestic production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum showed growth, with expectations of price increases due to rising demand and costs [38][40]. - Lithium: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.96% to 78,300 yuan/ton, but overcapacity remains a concern [48][51]. - Cobalt: Prices remained stable, with expectations of weak performance due to oversupply [57]. - Nickel: Prices showed a slight increase, but the overall consumption remains weak [59]. 2. Market Review - The report notes significant increases in stock indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 17.39% and the non-ferrous metals sector showing strong performance [67][70]. 3. Monthly Strategy - The report suggests focusing on copper, gold, and tin sectors due to favorable market conditions and policy support. Specific stocks are recommended for investment [72].